Bion Environmental Technologies (Bion Environmental Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Bion Environmental Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bion Environmental Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bion Environmental Technologies (Bion Environmental Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Bion Environmental Technologies Inc (OTCPK:BNET) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

9 East Park Couret, Old Bethpage, New York, NY, USA, 11804

Website

https://www.bionenviro.com

Bion Environmental Technologies Inc provides sustainable environmental and economic solutions to the food and livestock industry. Its proven technology offers a comprehensive treatment of livestock waste that largely eliminates its environmental impacts, while simultaneously recovering valuable assets from the waste stream, including renewable energy, nutrients, and clean water that have traditionally been wasted or underutilized. Revenues are generated from the sale of nutrient reduction credits. Geographically, the operations are conducted through the region of the United States.

Executives

Anthony Orphanos	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSMITH ADVISORS, LLC, 40 WEST 57TH STREET, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Salvatore J Zizza	director	810 SEVENTH AVE, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
William F. Rupp	director	C/O BION ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGIES, INC, PO BOX 323, OLD BETHPAGE NY 11804
William O'neill	officer: CEO	C/O BION ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGIES INC., PO BOX 323, OLD BETHPAGE NY 11804
Danielle C. Lominy	10 percent owner	6400 VILLAGE HILL DRIVE, DIX HILLS NY 11746
Christopher B. Parlow	10 percent owner	23 LONGBOW DRIVE, COMMACK NY 11725
Jon Northrop	director, officer: Secretary
Mark A Smith	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	641 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Dominic Bassani	10 percent owner, officer: CEO	C/O BRIGHT CAPITAL, LTD., 64 VILLAGE HILLS DRIVE, DIX HILLS NY 11746
Edward T Schafer	director, officer: Executive Vice Chairman	1400 31ST AVENUE SW, SUITE 60, MINOT ND 58701
Bright Capital Ltd.	10 percent owner	64 VILLAGE HILLS DRIVE, DIX HILLS NY 11746
Jere Northrop	director, officer: Senior Technology Officer	1961 TONAWANDA CREEK RD, AMHERST NY 14228
Jeremy Rowland	officer: COO of Bion Dairy	641 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
George Bloom	officer: COO of Bion Technologies	641 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Chris-dan, Llc	10 percent owner	64 VILLAGE HILLS DRIVE, DIX HILLS NY 11746