Bank of Marin Bancorp (Bank of Marin Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Bank of Marin Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bank of Marin Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bank of Marin Bancorp (Bank of Marin Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Bank of Marin Bancorp (NAS:BMRC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

504 Redwood Boulevard, Suite 100, Novato, CA, USA, 94947

Website

https://www.bankofmarin.com

Bank of Marin Bancorp is a United States-based bank holding company. It conducts business primarily through its wholly-owned subsidiary. The Bank provides a wide range of financial services to customers such as professionals, small and middle-market businesses, and individuals residing in Marin, Sonoma, Napa, San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa, and San Mateo counties. It offers commercial and retail deposit and lending programs, personal and business checking and savings accounts, and wealth management and trust services. The majority of its revenue comes from interest income.

Executives

Mcdevitt Jr William H	director	504 REDWOOD BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, NOVATO CA 94947
Cigdem Gencer	director	504 REDWOOD BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, NOVATO CA 94947
David Bonaccorso	officer: Senior Vice President	504 REDWOOD BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, NOVATO CA 94947
David A Bloom	officer: Executive Vice President	504 REDWOOD BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, NOVATO CA 94947
Misako Stewart	officer: EVP, Chief Credit Officer	504 REDWOOD BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, NOVATO CA 94947
Timothy D Myers	officer: Senior Vice President	504 REDWOOD BOULEVARD, STE 100, NOVATO CA 94947
Arasadi Sathis	officer: Executive Vice President	504 REDWOOD BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, NOVATO CA 94947
Secil Tabli Watson	director	504 REDWOOD BLVD., STE. 100, NOVATO CA 94947
David A Merck	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	504 REDWOOD BOULEVARD, STE. 100, NOVATO CA 94947
Kevin R Kennedy	director	504 REDWOOD BLVD STE 100, NOVATO CA 94947
H Robert Heller	director	90 GILMARTIN DRIVE, TIBURON CA 94920
Charles D Fite	director	8707 HAMMERSMITH LANE, FAIR OAKS CA 95628-6300
Russell A Colombo	director, officer: President and CEO	504 REDWOOD BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, NOVATO CA 94947
Steven I. Barlow	director	504 REDWOOD BLVD., SUITE 100, NOVATO CA 94947
Sanjiv Siddharth Sanghvi	director	504 REDWOOD BOULEVARD, STE 100, NOVATO CA 94947