Blackstone Strategic Credit Fund (Blackstone Strategic Credit Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Blackstone Strategic Credit Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Blackstone Strategic Credit Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Blackstone Strategic Credit Fund (Blackstone Strategic Credit Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Blackstone Strategic Credit Fund (NYSE:BGB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

345 Park Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10154

Website

http://www.blackstone-credit.com

Blackstone Strategic Credit Fund is a closed-end term fund. Its primary investment objective is to seek high current income. The secondary objective of the fund is to seek the preservation of capital. It invests primarily in diversified portfolios or loans and other fixed-income instruments of predominantly US Corporate issuers, including first? and second?lien loans (Senior Secured Loans) and high-yield corporate bonds of varying maturities.

Executives

Gordon Mckemie	other: Portfolio Manager	C/O GSO CAPITAL PARTNERS LP, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Valerie Naratil	officer: Public Relations Officer	345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Metlife Investment Management, Llc	10 percent owner	ONE METLIFE WAY, WHIPPANY NJ 07981
William J Renahan	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	399 PARK AVENUE, 4TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Gregory Roppa	officer: CFO & Treasurer	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jane Siebels	director	345 PARK AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10154
Robert Post	other: Portfolio Manager	C/O GSO/BLACKSTONE DEBT FUNDS MGMT, LLC, 345 PARK AVE 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10154
Robert W Busch	officer: CFO & Treasurer	C/O HPS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, LLC, 40 WEST 57TH STREET, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Robert Zable	other: Portfolio Mngr,Mbr of Inv.Comm	1290 BROADWAY, SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80203
Voya Financial, Inc.	10 percent owner	230 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10169
Lion Connecticut Holdings Inc.	10 percent owner	ONE ORANGE WAY, WINDSOR CT 06095
Ing Usa Annuity & Life Insurance Co	10 percent owner	699 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 1350, DE MOINES IA 50309-3942
Ing Life Insurance & Annuity Co	10 percent owner	ONE ORANGE WAY, WINDSOR CT 06095-4774
Sun Life Financial Inc	10 percent owner	SUN LIFE ASSURANCE CO OF CANADA, ONE YORK STREET, TORONTO A6 M5J 0B6
Sun Life Assurance Co Of Canada	10 percent owner	ONE YORK STREET, TORONTO A6 M5J 0B6