Vinco Ventures (Vinco Ventures) Predictability Rank

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What is Vinco Ventures Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vinco Ventures Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Vinco Ventures (Vinco Ventures) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Vinco Ventures Inc (OTCPK:BBIG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

6 North Main Street, Fairport, NY, USA, 14450

Website

https://investors.vincoventures.com

Vinco Ventures Incis a vertically-integrated, end-to-end, consumer product research and development, manufacturing, sales and fulfillment company. It offers kitchenware, small appliances, toys, pet care, baby products, health and beauty aids, entertainment venue merchandise, and housewares to retailers, mass-market retailers, and e-commerce sites; and personal protective equipment to governmental agencies, hospitals, and distributors. The company also offers Lomotif app that allows its users to create their own music videos; Cortex, a real-time analytics for marketing spend and revenue optimization; and delivers ad-campaign creation, optimalization, and monetization at scale.

Executives

James Robertson	officer: Chief Executive Officer	24 ASPEN PARK BLVD, EAST SYRACUSE NY 13057
Christopher Vincent Polimeni	officer: Chief Financial Officer	24 ASPEN PARK BLVD., EAST SYRACUSE NY 13057
Lisa A. King	director	19 CAPSTONE RISE, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Richard Levychin	director	189 MONTAGUE STREET, APT. 28A, BROOKLYN NY 11201
Phillip Anthony Mcfillin	other: Legal counsel	116 KINGS HIGHWAY EAST, SUITE 2A, HADDONFIELD NJ 08033
Kevin J O'donnell	director	91 OAKLEIGH LANE, MAITLAND FL 32751
Christopher Ferguson	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO	1866 LEITHSVILLE ROAD, SUITE 223, HALLERTOWN PA 18055
Stuart J. Ferguson	10 percent owner	125 S DELAWARE DR, LOT 6, EASTON PA 18042
Thomas S. Ferguson	10 percent owner	500 FAIRBANKS AVENUE, PHILLIPSBURG NJ 08865
Kevin James Ferguson	officer: President and Treasurer	20 INDUSTRIAL ROAD, ALPHA NJ 08865
Toper Taylor	director	C/O EDISON NATION, INC., 909 NEW BRUNSWICK AVENUE, PHILLIPSBURG NJ 08865
Frank D Jennings	director	1739 SAILMAKER STREET, CHARLESTON SC 29492
Louis Foreman	director	520 ELLIOT STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Vroman Brett Earl James	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O EDISON NATION, INC., 909 NEW BRUNSWICK AVENUE, PHILLIPSBURG NJ 08865
Lelainya D. Ferguson	10 percent owner	1758 RED HAWK WAY, BETHLEHEM PA 10015