BigBear.ai Holdings (BigBear.ai Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is BigBear.ai Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BigBear.ai Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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BigBear.ai Holdings (BigBear.ai Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » BigBear.ai Holdings Inc (NYSE:BBAI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

28K1:Germany

Address

6811 Benjamin Franklin Drive, Suite 200, Columbia, MD, USA, 21046

Website

https://www.bigbear.ai

BigBear.ai Holdings Inc is a technology-led solutions organization, that provides both software and services to its customers. Its AI-powered decision intelligence solutions are leveraged in three markets; supply chains & logistics, autonomous systems, and cybersecurity. It operates in two segments; Cyber & Engineering segment provides high-end technology and management consulting services to its customers, focusing on cloud engineering and enterprise IT, cybersecurity, computer network operations, and wireless, systems engineering, as well as program planning, and Analytics segment provides high-end technology and consulting services to its customers, focusing on data computing and analytical solutions, including predictive and prescriptive analytics solutions.

Executives

Avi S Katz	director	C/O GIGCAPITAL, INC., 3000 EL CAMINO REAL, BLDG 4, SUITE 232, PALO ALTO CA 94306
Raluca Dinu	director	C/O GIGCAPITAL2, INC., 2479 E. BAYSHORE RD., SUITE 200, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Pamela Joyce Braden	director	1731 EMBARCADERO RD., SUITE 200, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Ae Industrial Partners Fund Ii Gp, Lp	10 percent owner	2500 N. MILITARY TRAIL, SUITE 470, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Norm Laudermilch	officer: Chief Operating Officer	6811 BENJAMIN FRANKLIN DRIVE, SUITE 200, COLUMBIA MD 21046
Joshua Lane Kinley	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1731 EMBARCADERO RD., SUITE 200, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Amanda Long	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1731 EMBARCADERO ROAD, SUITE 200, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Julie Peffer	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1731 EMBARCADERO RD, SUITE 200, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Carolyn Blankenship	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	1731 EMBARCADERO RD, SUITE 200, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Ae Industrial Partners Fund Ii, Lp	10 percent owner	2500 N. MILITARY TRAIL, SUITE 470, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Ae Industrial Partners Fund Ii-a, Lp	10 percent owner	2500 N. MILITARY TRAIL, SUITE 470, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Ae Industrial Partners Fund Ii-b, Lp	10 percent owner	2500 N. MILITARY TRAIL, SUITE 470, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Dorothy D Hayes	director	P.O. BOX 7850, ., MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94039-7850
Michael Robert Greene	10 percent owner	2500 N. MILITARY TRAIL, SUITE 470, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Ae Bbai Aggregator, Lp	10 percent owner	1731 EMBARCADERO RD., SUITE 200, PALO ALTO CA 94303