Aurora Innovation (Aurora Innovation) Predictability Rank

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What is Aurora Innovation Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Aurora Innovation Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Aurora Innovation (Aurora Innovation) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Aurora Innovation Inc (NAS:AUR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1654 Smallman Street, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, 15222

Website

https://www.aurora.tech

Aurora Innovation Inc is engaged in delivering self-driving technology safely, quickly, and broadly. The company designs and develops the Aurora Driver, which is the hardware, software, and data services that allow vehicles to drive themselves. Its flagship product, the Aurora Driver, is a platform that brings together software, hardware, and data services, to autonomously operate passenger vehicles, light commercial vehicles, and heavy-duty trucks. The company has partnered with industries across the transportation ecosystem including Toyota, Volvo, PACCAR, Uber, Uber Freight, FedEx, and U.S. Xpress. The company tests its vehicles in the Bay Area, Pittsburgh, and Texas and has offices in those areas as well as in Bozeman, MT; Seattle, WA; Louisville, CO; and Detroit, MI.

Executives

Sterling Anderson	director	C/O AURORA INNOVATION, INC., 280 N BERNARDO AVE CA 94042
David Maday	officer: See Remarks	1654 SMALLMAN ST, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Gloria R. Boyland	director	6100 N. WESTERN AVENUE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73118
Ossa Fisher	officer: President	1 FANATICAL PLACE, CITY OF WINDCREST, SAN ANTONIO TX 78218
Nolan Shenai	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	1654 SMALLMAN ST,, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Claire D'oyly-hughes Johnson	director	C/O AMERESCO, INC., 111 SPEEN STREET, STE. 401, FRAMINGHAM MA 01701-3812
Uber Technologies, Inc	10 percent owner	1515 3RD STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
James Andrew Bagnell	director	C/O AURORA INNOVATION, INC., 280 N BERNARDO AVE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Christopher Urmson	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	C/O AURORA INNOVATION, INC., 280 N BERNARDO AVE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Richard Tame	officer: Vice President of Finance	C/O AURORA INNOVATION, INC., 280 N BERNARDO AVE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
William Mouat	officer: See Remarks	C/O AURORA INNOVATION, INC., 280 N BERNARDO AVE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Dara Khosrowshahi	director	C/O INTERACTIVE CORP, 152 WEST 57TH ST, NEW YORK NY 10019
Brittany Bagley	director	C/O SONOS, INC., 614 CHAPALA STREET, SANTA BARBARA CA 93101
Michelangelo Volpi	director	C/O HORTONWORKS, INC., 3640 W. BAYSHORE RD., PALO ALTO CA 94303
Carl M. Eschenbach	director	C/O SEQUOIA CAPITAL, 2800 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, PALO ALTO CA 94025