ATAI Life Sciences NV (ATAI Life Sciences NV) Predictability Rank

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What is ATAI Life Sciences NV Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ATAI Life Sciences NV Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ATAI Life Sciences NV (ATAI Life Sciences NV) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » ATAI Life Sciences NV (NAS:ATAI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ATAI:Mexico 9VC:Germany

Address

Wallstraße 16, Berlin, BB, DEU, 10179

Website

https://www.atai.life

ATAI Life Sciences NV is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company aiming to transform the treatment of mental health disorders. Its product candidates include COMP360/Psilocybin therapy, PCN-101/R-ketamine, RL-007/Compound, DMX-1002/Ibogaine, GRX-917/Deuterated etifoxine, VLS-01/DMT, EMP-01/MDMA derivative, RLS-01/Salvinorin A, KUR-101/Deuterated Mitragynine, and DMX-1001/Noribogaine. The business operates geographically in two regions being the United States and Germany.

Executives

Florian Brand	officer: See Remarks	C/O ATAI LIFE SCIENCES N.V., 180 VARICK STREET, NEW YORK NY 10014
Anne Nagengast Johnson	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O ATAI LIFE SCIENCES N.V., WALLSTRASSE 16, BERLIN 2M 10179
Apeiron Investment Group Ltd.	10 percent owner	BLOCK A, APT.12, IL-PIAZZETTA, TOWER ROAD, SLIEMA O1 SLM1605
Sahil Kirpekar	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O ATAI LIFE SCIENCES N.V., WALLSTRASSE 16, BERLIN 2M 10179
Stephen Bardin	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ATAI LIFE SCIENCES N.V., KRAUSENSTRASSE 9-10, BERLIN 2M 10117
Gregory L Weaver	officer: Chief Financial Officer	185 BERRY STREET, SUITE 6504, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Andrea Heslin Smiley	director	600 LEE ROAD, SUITE 100, WAYNE PA 19087
Michael Auerbach	director	158 HESTER STREET, APT 7F, NEW YORK NY 10013
Amir H Kalali	director	4350 EXECUTIVE DRIVE SUITE 325, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Christian Angermayer	director, 10 percent owner	BLOCK A, APT.12, IL-PIAZZETTA, TOWER ROAD, SLIEMA O1 SLM1605
Rosnay Alexis De	director	C/O ATAI LIFE SCIENCES N.V., 180 VARICK STREET, NEW YORK NY 10014
Srinivas Rao	officer: See Remarks	C/O ATAI LIFE SCIENCES N.V., 180 VARICK STREET, NEW YORK NY 10014
Sabrina Martucci Johnson	director	11119 NORTH TORREY PINES ROAD, SUITE 200, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Jason Camm	director	C/O ATAI LIFE SCIENCES N.V., 180 VARICK STREET, NEW YORK NY 10014
Presight Ii, Lp	10 percent owner	C/O ATAI LIFE SCIENCES N.V., 180 VARICK STREET, NEW YORK NY 10014