Associated Banc-Corp (Associated Banc-Corp) Predictability Rank

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What is Associated Banc-Corp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Associated Banc-Corp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Associated Banc-Corp (Associated Banc-Corp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Associated Banc-Corp (NYSE:ASB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ASBpF.PFD:USA ASBpE.PFD:USA

Address

433 Main Street, Green Bay, WI, USA, 54301

Website

https://www.associatedbank.com

Associated Banc-Corp is a bank holding company. The company through its subsidiaries provides a broad array of banking and nonbanking products and services to individuals and businesses. The company operates in three reportable segments; Corporate and Commercial Specialty; Community, Consumer, and Business; and Risk Management and Shared Services. The majority of its revenue is derived from the Corporate and Commercial Specialty and Community, Consumer, and Business segments.

Executives

John A. Utz	officer: Executive Vice President	ASSOCIATED BANC-CORP, 433 MAIN STREET, GREEN BAY WI 54301
David L Stein	officer: Executive Vice President	433 MAIN STREET, GREEN BAY WI 54301
Jayne C Hladio	officer: EVP, President Private Wealth	C/O ASSOCIATED BANC-CORP, 433 MAIN STREET, GREEN BAY WI 54301
Randall J. Erickson	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O ASSOCIATED BANC-CORP, 1200 HANSEN ROAD, GREEN BAY WI 54304
Michael J Haddad	director	C/O ASSOCIATED BANC CORP, 433 MAIN STREET, GREEN BAY WI 54301
Andrew J Harmening	director, officer: President & CEO	ASSOCIATED BANC-CORP, 433 MAIN STREET, GREEN BAY WI 54301
Karen Beckwith	director	433 MAIN STREET, C/O ASSOCIATED BANC-CORP, GREEN BAY WI 54301
Eileen A Kamerick	director	200 NORTH ADAMS STREET, GREEN BAY WI 54301
John B Williams	director	C/O ASSOCIATED BANC-CORP, 433 MAIN STREET, GREEN BAY WI 54301
Terry Lynn Williams	officer: Chief Information Officer	C/O ASSOCIATED BANC CORP, 433 MAIN STREET, GREEN BAY WI 54301
Tammy C. Stadler	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	330 E. KILBOURN, SUITE 200, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Derek S. Meyer	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O ASSOCIATED BANC-CORP, 433 MAIN STREET, GREEN BAY WI 54301
Bryan Carson	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O ASSOCIATED BANC-CORP, 433 MAIN STREET, GREEN BAY WI 54301
Matthew R Braeger	officer: Executive Vice President	433 MAIN STREET, GREEN BAY WI 54301
John P Thayer	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O ASSOCIATED BANC-CORP, 433 MAIN STREET, GREEN BAY WI 54301