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The Arena Group Holdings (The Arena Group Holdings) Predictability Rank


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What is The Arena Group Holdings Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Arena Group Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

The Arena Group Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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The Arena Group Holdings (The Arena Group Holdings) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » The Arena Group Holdings Inc (AMEX:AREN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
FENG HRYU STBX MSEZ KRKR TRFE BRQL FDIT SOGP ZDGE GOOGL META HKSE:00700 XAMS:PRX TSE:6098 SPOT DASH JSE:NPN BIDU HKSE:01024
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
200 Vesey Street, 24th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10281
Website
https://www.thearenagroup.net
The Arena Group Holdings Inc is a tech-powered media company that fuses superior technology, iconic brands, and marketing savvy to deliver vibrant content and experiences that reach more than 120 million users each month. The company creates robust digital destinations that delight consumers with powerful journalism, news about the things such as favorite sports teams, advice on investing, the inside scoop on personal finance, and the latest on lifestyle essentials. The Company operates in one reportable segment which focuses on a publishing platform.
Executives
Todd D. Sims director C/O B. RILEY FINANCIAL, INC., 21255 BURBANK BLVD., SUITE 400, WOODLAND HILLS CA 91367
B. Riley Financial, Inc. other: See Remarks. 11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD, SUITE 800, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Paul Taylor Edmondson officer: Chief Operating Officer C/O THEMAVEN, 1500 FOURTH AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98101
Herbert Hunt Allred director 200 VESEY ST., 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10281
Daniel Shribman director 299 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10171
Ross Levinsohn director 701 FIRST AVENUE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
B. Riley Securities, Inc. 10 percent owner 11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD, SUITE 800, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Christopher Petzel director 200 VESEY ST., 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10281
Laura Anne Lee director 267 1ST STREET, APT 1, BROOKLYN NY 11215
Spiridon Christoforatos officer: Chief Accounting Officer 200 VESEY ST., 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10281
Brf Investments, Llc 10 percent owner 11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD., SUITE 800, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Carlo Zola director 225 LIBERTY STREET, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10281
Eric Semler director 4625 FIELDSTON ROAD, BRONX NY 10471
Brc Partners Opportunity Fund, Lp other: See Remarks. 11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD. SUITE 800, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Henry Robertson Barrett officer: President, Media 225 LIBERTY STREET, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10281