Amplitude (Amplitude) Predictability Rank

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What is Amplitude Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Amplitude Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Amplitude (Amplitude) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Amplitude Inc (NAS:AMPL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

201 Third Street, Suite 200, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94103

Website

https://www.amplitude.com

Amplitude Inc is a Software company that provides a Digital Analytics Platform that helps companies analyze their customer behavior within digital products. The Company delivers its application over the Internet as a subscription service using a software-as-a-service (SaaS) model and also it offers customer support related to initial implementation setup, ongoing support services, and application training. The company derives a majority of its revenue from the United States.

Executives

Battery Partners Select Fund I, L.p.	10 percent owner	ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, SUITE 1100, BOSTON MA 02210
Neeraj Agrawal	director, 10 percent owner	ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, SUITE 1100, BOSTON MA 02210
Catherine Wong	director	C/O DOMO, INC., 772 EAST UTAH VALLEY DRIVE, AMERICAN FORK UT 84003
Dharmesh Thakker	10 percent owner	ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, SUITE 1100, BOSTON MA 02210
Patrick W Grady	director, 10 percent owner	C/O OKTA, INC., 301 BRANNAN STREET 1ST FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Sc Us (ttgp), Ltd.	10 percent owner	2800 SAND HILL RD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Christopher Harms	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O FORESCOUT TECHNOLOGIES INC, 190 WEST TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Thomas Neergaard Hansen	officer: President	C/O UIPATH, INC., 452 FIFTH AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Ninos Sarkis	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O AMPLITUDE, INC., 201 THIRD STREET, SUITE 200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Mitchell Lasky	10 percent owner	2480 SAND HILL ROAD, STE 200, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sarah E Tavel	10 percent owner	2965 WOODSIDE ROAD, WOODSIDE CA 94062
Chetan Puttagunta	10 percent owner	2855 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
An-yen Hu	10 percent owner	2965 WOODSIDE ROAD, WOODSIDE CA 94062
J William Gurley	10 percent owner	2480 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 200, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sequoia Capital U.s. Growth Fund Ix, L.p.	10 percent owner	2800 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025