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Apartmentome REIT (Apartmentome REIT) Predictability Rank


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What is Apartmentome REIT Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Apartmentome REIT Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Apartmentome REIT Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Apartmentome REIT (Apartmentome REIT) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
4582 South Ulster Street, Suite 1700, Denver, CO, USA, 80237
Apartment Investment and Management Co. owns a portfolio of 73 apartment communities with over 25,000 units. The company focuses on owning large, high-quality properties in the urban and suburban submarkets of Boston, Denver, Los Angeles, Miami, Philadelphia, San Diego, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C.
Executives
Molly Syke officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer 4582 S. ULSTER STREET, SUITE 1700, DENVER CO 80237
Devin Ignatius Murphy director 104 MAIN STREET, SOUTHPORT CT 06890
John D Rayis director 4582 S. ULSTER STREET, SUITE 1700, DENVER CO 80237
Keith M Kimmel officer: President, Property Operations 4582 S ULSTER STREET PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80237
Joshua Minix officer: Executive Vice President 4582 S. ULSTER STREET, SUITE 1700, DENVER CO 80237
Matthew O'grady officer: SVP 4582 SOUTH ULSTER STREET, SUITE 1700, SUITE 1700, DENVER CO 80237
Paul Beldin officer: EVP & CFO 4582 S. ULSTER STREET PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80237
Thomas N Bohjalian director C/O APARTMENT INCOME REIT CORP., 4582 S. ULSTER STREET, SUITE 1700, DENVER CO 80237
Ann Sperling director 4582 S. ULSTER STREET, SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80237
Thomas L. Keltner director P.O. BOX 2030, SILVERTHORNE CO 80498
Nina A Tran director C/O AMB PROPERTY CORPORATION, PIER 1, BAY 1, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Lisa R Cohn officer: President & General Counsel 4582 S. ULSTER STREET PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80237
Terry Considine director, officer: CEO 4582 SOUTH ULSTER STREET PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80237
Hernandez Margarita Palau director 300 N. SAN RAFAEL AVE., PASADENA CA 91105
Kristin R. Finney-cooke director 4582 SOUTH ULSTER STREET, SUITE 1700, DENVER CO 80237