Athena Gold (Athena Gold) Predictability Rank

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What is Athena Gold Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Athena Gold Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Athena Gold (Athena Gold) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Athena Gold Corp (OTCPK:AHNR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ATHA:Canada

Address

2010A Harbison Drive, Suite 312, Vacaville, CA, USA, 95687

Website

https://www.athenagoldcorp.com

Athena Gold Corp is focused on the exploration and development of precious metals in the Western United States. Its core holding is Excelsior Springs Project in Nevada's Walker Lane Gold District.

Executives

Power John C /ca/	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Pres., CFO, Prin. Acctg. Off.
John D Gibbs	10 percent owner	16 E STREET SOUTHWEST, ARDMORE OK 73402
Nubian Resources Ltd.	10 percent owner	#202 YALE COURT PLAZA, 2526 YALE COURT ROAD, ABBOTSFORD A1 V2S 8G9
Tyler J Minnick	officer: CFO	C/O ATHENA GOLD CORPORATION, 2010A HARBISON DR., #312, VACAVILLE CA 95687
John E Hiner	director	9443 AXLUND ROAD, LYNDEN WA 98264
Markus Janser	director	CH. DE LA BRUYERE 23C, PULLY V8 1009
Brian Power	director	2010A HARBISON DR., #312, VACAVILLE CA 95687
Neuman Clifford L Esq	10 percent owner	6800 NORTH 79TH STREET, SUITE # 200, NIWOT CO 80503
Leroy Wilkes	director	5154 LEDUC LANE, CASTLE ROCK CO 80108
Webquest Inc.	10 percent owner	7750 N UNION BLVD, # 201, COLORADO SPRINGS CO 80920
Shana Capital Ltd	10 percent owner	678 S PONTIAC WAY, DENVER CO 80224
Tripower Resources, Inc.	10 percent owner	POST OFFICE BOX 849, ARDMORE OK 73402
Butte Creek Brewing Company, Llc	10 percent owner	945 W. SECOND STREET, CHICO CA 95928
J Andrew Moorer	director	POST OFFICE BOX 3618, CAREFREE AZ 85377