Assured Guaranty Beneish M-Score Calculation
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Assured Guaranty for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
| M | = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * DSRI | + | 0.528 * GMI | + | 0.404 * AQI | + | 0.892 * SGI | + | 0.115 * DEPI |
| = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * 0.6867 | + | 0.528 * 1 | + | 0.404 * 1.3944 | + | 0.892 * 1.5604 | + | 0.115 * 1 |
| - | 0.172 * SGAI | + | 4.679 * TATA | - | 0.327 * LVGI |
| - | 0.172 * 0.5268 | + | 4.679 * 0.054452 | - | 0.327 * 1.3945 |
| = | -1.90 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
| This Year (Mar24) TTM: | Last Year (Mar23) TTM: |
Total Receivables was €1,605.4 Mil.
Revenue was 207.92 + 258.594 + 136.802 + 329.511 = €932.8 Mil.
Gross Profit was 207.92 + 258.594 + 136.802 + 329.511 = €932.8 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €0.0 Mil.
Total Assets was €11,194.6 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €346.8 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €0.0 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €209.7 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €0.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €1,559.4 Mil.
Net Income was 100.28 + 344.792 + 147.109 + 115.375 = €707.6 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0.92 + 21.091 + 5.622 + 4.615 = €32.2 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -68.08 + 186.151 + -166.786 + 114.452 = €65.7 Mil.
|
Total Receivables was €1,498.1 Mil.
Revenue was 214.82 + 287.92 + 22.22 + 72.842 = €597.8 Mil.
Gross Profit was 214.82 + 287.92 + 22.22 + 72.842 = €597.8 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €0.0 Mil.
Total Assets was €15,670.7 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €4,780.2 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €0.0 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €255.1 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €0.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €1,565.4 Mil.
|
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
| DSRI | = | (Receivables_t / Revenue_t) | / | (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) |
| = | (1605.4 / 932.827) | / | (1498.136 / 597.802) |
| = | 1.721005 | / | 2.506074 |
| | = | 0.6867 |
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
| GMI | = | GrossMargin_t-1 | / | GrossMargin_t |
| = | (GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) | / | (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t) |
| = | (597.802 / 597.802) | / | (932.827 / 932.827) |
| = | 1 | / | 1 |
| | = | 1 |
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.
| AQI | = | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | (1 - (0 + 346.84) / 11194.56) | / | (1 - (0 + 4780.212) / 15670.652) |
| = | 0.969017 | / | 0.694958 |
| | = | 1.3944 |
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
| SGI | = | Sales_t | / | Sales_t-1 |
| = | Revenue_t | / | Revenue_t-1 |
| = | 932.827 | / | 597.802 |
| | = | 1.5604 |
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
| DEPI | = | (Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) | / | (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t)) |
| = | (0 / (0 + 4780.212)) | / | (0 / (0 + 346.84)) |
| = | 0 | / | 0 |
| | = | 1 |
Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
| SGAI | = | (SGA_t / Sales_t) | / | (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1) |
| = | (209.693 / 932.827) | / | (255.108 / 597.802) |
| = | 0.224793 | / | 0.426743 |
| | = | 0.5268 |
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage
| LVGI | = | ((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | ((1559.4 + 0) / 11194.56) | / | ((1565.384 + 0) / 15670.652) |
| = | 0.1393 | / | 0.099893 |
| | = | 1.3945 |
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
| TATA | = | (IncomefromContinuingOperations_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (707.556 - 32.248 | - | 65.737) | / | 11194.56 |
| | = | 0.054452 |
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Assured Guaranty has a M-score of -1.90 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
FRA:DHU has been successfully added to your