Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings (Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $-2.94 (As of May. 05, 2024)

View and export this data going back to 2005. Start your Free Trial

What is Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-05-05), Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $-2.94.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings is N/A.

The industry rank for Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

AAWW's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Transportation industry.
Industry Median: 0.68
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings Annual Data

Trend

Dec13

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Get a 7-Day Free Trial

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings Quarterly Data
	Mar18	Jun18	Sep18	Dec18	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															-	-	-	-	-

Competitive Comparison of Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Airports & Air Services subindustry, Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Transportation Industry

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.50%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $-0.255.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	=	Free Cash Flow per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Free Cash Flow per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Free Cash Flow per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

-0.255

11.5406

-2.94

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
	=	(-2.94	-	102.48)	/	-2.94
	=	N/A

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings (NAS:AAWW) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings (Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings Inc (NAS:AAWW) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2000 Westchester Avenue, Purchase, NY, USA, 10577-2543

Website

https://www.atlasairworldwide.com

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings Inc is a provider of outsourced aircraft and aviation operating services and the outsourced airfreight provider in the world. Company operates a fleet of 747 freighters and provides customers with a broad array of 747, 777, 767 and 737 aircraft for domestic, regional and international cargo and passenger operations. The company has operations in Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, the Middle East, North America and South America. The company's business is organized into two operating segments based on service offerings: 1) Airline Operations include providing cargo aircraft outsourcing services to customers on an ACMI, CMI and Charter basis. 2) Dry Leasing business provides aircraft and engines to customers, including CMI customers, for a fixed monthly amount.

Executives

John W Dietrich	officer: SVP/Gen Cnsl/Secretary, other: Chf. HR Off
Walter G Borst	director	2701 NAVISTAR DRIVE, LISLE IL 60532
Raymond L. Conner	director	ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
George Willis	director	55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE, ATLANTA GA 30328
Adam Richard Kokas	officer: Sr. V.P., Gen. Counsel & Secy.	C/O ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS, INC., 2000 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, PURCHASE NY 10577
Michael Steen	officer: SVP & Chief Marketing Officer	2000 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, PURCHASE NY 10577
John K Wulff	director	C/O HERCULES INC, 1313 NORTH MARKET STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19894-0001
Keith H. Mayer	officer: Vice President & Controller	ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS, INC., 2000 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, PURCHASE NY 10577
Duncan J. Mcnabb	director	C/O ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS, INC., 2000 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, PURCHASE NY 10577
Sheila A Stamps	director	C/O CIT GROUP, 1 CIT DRIVE, ATTN: GENERAL COUNSEL, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
James Anthony Forbes	officer: EVP & COO	C/O ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS, INC., 2000 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, PURCHASE NY 10577
Carol J Zierhoffer	director	100 NORTH POINT CENTER EAST, SUITE 200, ALPHARETTA GA 30022
Beverly K. Goulet,	director	10990 ROE AVENUE, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211
William J Flynn	director, officer: Pres. & CEO	C/O ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS, INC., 2000 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, PURCHASE NY 10577
Spencer Schwartz	officer: Vice President & Controller	C/O ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS, INC., 2000 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, PURCHASE NY 10577