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Virginia National Bankshares (Virginia National Bankshares) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.10% (As of May. 26, 2024)


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What is Virginia National Bankshares Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Virginia National Bankshares's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.10%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Virginia National Bankshares's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Virginia National Bankshares's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Virginia National Bankshares's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Banks Industry

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Virginia National Bankshares's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Virginia National Bankshares's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Virginia National Bankshares Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-6.95

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.10%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:


4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Virginia National Bankshares  (NAS:VABK) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Virginia National Bankshares Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Virginia National Bankshares (Virginia National Bankshares) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
404 People Place, Charlottesville, VA, USA, 22911
Virginia National Bankshares Corp is a bank holding company which is engaged in the commercial and retail banking business. The bank offers a range of banking and related financial services, including checking accounts, negotiable order of withdrawal accounts, money market deposit accounts, certificates of deposit, individual retirement accounts and other depository services. Its segments include the Bank, VNB Trust and Estate Services, Sturman Wealth Advisors, and Masonry Capital. The Bank's commercial banking activities involve making loans, taking deposits and offering related services to individuals, businesses and charitable organizations.
Executives
Adams John Buchanan Jr director 10 COURTHOUSE SQUARE, WARRENTON VA 20188
Kevin T Carter director 10 COURTHOUSE SQUARE, WARRENTON VA 20186
Glenn W Rust director, officer: President and CEO C/O VIRGINIA NATIONAL BANK, 404 PEOPLE PLACE, CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22911
Jay B Keyser director 10 COURTHOUSE SQUARE, WARRENTON VA 20186
Randolph D Frostick director 10 COURTHOUSE SQUARE, WARRENTON VA 20186
Dittmar William D Jr. director C/O ENTERPRISE PROPERTIES, 401 EAST MARKET STREET, CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22902
Virginia R Bayes officer: Chief Credit Officer & EVP C/O VIRGINIA NATIONAL BANK, 404 PEOPLE PLACE, CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22911
Linda M Houston director C/O VIRGINIA NATIONAL BANK, 404 PEOPLE PLACE, CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22911
James T Holland director C/O VIRGINIA NATIONAL BANK, 404 PEOPLE PLACE, CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22911
Donna G Shewmake officer: GC, EVP & Secretary C/O VIRGINIA NATIONAL BANK, 404 PEOPLE PLACE, CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22911
Gregory L Wells director C/O ACAC FITNESS & WELLNESS CENTERS, 455 SECOND STREET, SUITE 301, CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22902
Strange Sterling T Iii director 10 COURTHOUSE SQUARE, WARRENTON VA 20186
Marc J Bogan director, officer: President and CEO 10 COURTHOUSE SQUARE, WARRENTON VA 20186
Tara Y Harrison officer: Chief Financial Officer & EVP 404 PEOPLE PLACE, CHARLOTTSVILLE VA 22911
Susan K Payne director C/O PAYNE ROSS & ASSOCIATES, 206 EAST JEFFERSON STREET, CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22902

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