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Five Star Bancorp (Five Star Bancorp) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.08% (As of May. 12, 2024)


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What is Five Star Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Five Star Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.08%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Five Star Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Five Star Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Five Star Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Banks Industry

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Five Star Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Five Star Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Five Star Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.17

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.08%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:


4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Five Star Bancorp  (NAS:FSBC) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Five Star Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Five Star Bancorp (Five Star Bancorp) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
3100 Zinfandel Drive, Suite 100, Rancho Cordova, CA, USA, 95670
Five Star Bancorp is a California state-chartered non-member bank. The Company provides a broad range of banking products and services to small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and individuals. It offers loan products like commercial real estate loans, commercial loans, commercial land and construction loans, and farmland loans and offers deposit products like money market accounts, non-interest-bearing accounts, and interest checking accounts.
Executives
Brett Levi Wait officer: SVP & CIO 3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
David John Lucchetti director 3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Robert Truxtun Perry-smith director 3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Leigh Ann White director 3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Shelley Ronan Wetton officer: SVP & Chief Marketing Officer 3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Donna Lucas director 1215 K STREET, SUITE 1120, SACRAMENTO CA 95814
Michael Eugene Lee officer: SVP & Chief Regulatory Officer 3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Heather Christina Luck officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer 3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Michael Anthony Rizzo officer: SVP & Chief Banking Officer 3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Lydia Ann Ramirez-medina officer: SVP & COO & Chief DE&I Officer 3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Shannon Deary-bell director 3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Kevin Francis Ramos director 3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Judson Teichert Riggs director 3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Randall E Reynoso director 3189 LAND PARK DRIVE, SACRAMENTO CA 95818
David Frank Nickum director 3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670

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