Argo Group International Holdings (Argo Group International Holdings) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.02% (As of Jun. 02, 2024)

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What is Argo Group International Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Argo Group International Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of Argo Group International Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Insurance - Property & Casualty subindustry, Argo Group International Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Argo Group International Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Insurance Industry

For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, Argo Group International Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Argo Group International Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

Argo Group International Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-8.44

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.02%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For insurance companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

(Balance Sheet Cash And Cash Equivalents + Short-term investments)

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Argo Group International Holdings (NYSE:ARGO) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Argo Group International Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Argo Group International Holdings (Argo Group International Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Argo Group International Holdings Ltd (NYSE:ARGO) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ARGOpA.PFD:USA

Address

501 7th Avenue, 7th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10018

Website

https://www.argolimited.com

Argo Group International Holdings Inc formerly Argo Group International Holdings Ltd is a property and casualty insurance company. It has two reportable segments which are U.S. Operations and International Operations. The U.S. Operations segment is comprised of two primary operating divisions, Excess and Surplus Lines and Specialty Admitted, while International Operations' primary operating divisions are Syndicate 1200, Reinsurance, and Argo Insurance Bermuda. The vast majority of revenue generation occurs within the excess and surplus lines segment, which underwrites casualty, property, and professional liability coverage for various clients. Argo generates the majority of its revenue in the United States, followed by the United Kingdom and Bermuda.

Executives

Jessica E. Snyder	officer: President, U.S. Insurance	ARGO GROUP INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS, LTD., 90 PITTS BAY RD., PEMBROKE D0 HM08
J Daniel Plants	director	ONE EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 1140, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Susan Comparato	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	ARGO GROUP INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS, LTD., 90 PITTS BAY ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Scott Kirk	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ARGO GROUP INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS,, LTD. 90 PITTS BAY ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Andrew Marshall Borst	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	175 E. HOUSTON ST., SUITE 1300, SAN ANTONIO TX 78205
Allison Kiene	officer: SVP, General Counsel	C/OARGO GROUP INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS,LTD, 110 PITTS BAY ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Kevin James Rehnberg	officer: President, U.S. Operations	C/O ONEBEACON INSURANCE GROUP, LTD, 1 BEACON LANE, CANTON MA 02021
Thomas A Bradley	director	199 WATER STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10038
Timothy D Carter	officer: Chief Underwriting Officer	C/O ARGO GROUP 110 PITTS BAY ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Fred Robert Donner	director	GLOBAL INDEMNITY GROUP, LLC, 112 S. FRENCH STREET, SUITE 105, WILMINGTON DE 19801
Bernard C Bailey	director
Samuel G Liss	director	VERISK ANALYTICS, INC., 545 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Carol A. Mcfate	director	5501 HEADQUARTERS DRIVE, PLANO TX 75024
Jay Stanley Bullock	officer: Chief Financial Officer	110 PITTS BAY ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Kathleen Nealon	director	P.O. BOX 1282, HAMILTON D0 HM08