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AlloVir (AlloVir) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 2.26% (As of Jun. 05, 2024)


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What is AlloVir Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, AlloVir's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 2.26%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of AlloVir's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Biotechnology subindustry, AlloVir's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


AlloVir's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Biotechnology Industry

For the Biotechnology industry and Healthcare sector, AlloVir's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where AlloVir's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



AlloVir Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-3.77

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=2.26%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


AlloVir  (NAS:ALVR) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


AlloVir Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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AlloVir (AlloVir) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » AlloVir Inc (NAS:ALVR) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1100 Winter Street, Waltham, MA, USA, 02451
AlloVir Inc is a late clinical-stage cell therapy company. It is developing allogeneic T-cell therapies to treat and prevent devastating viral diseases. The firm's pipeline includes ALVR106, ALVR109, ALVR108, and others. The company's product candidate, Viralym-M, is a multi-VST therapy targeting five viruses namely BK virus, cytomegalovirus, adenovirus, Epstein-Barr virus, and human herpesvirus 6.
Executives
Vikas Sinha director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks C/O ALEXION PHARMACUETICALS, INC., 352 KNOTTER DRIVE, CHESHIRE CT 06410
Diana Brainard director C/O ALLOVIR, INC., 139 MAIN STREET, SUITE 500, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Edward Miller officer: General Counsel C/O ALEXION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC, 352 KNOTTER DRIVE, CHESHIRE CT 06410
Brett R Hagen officer: Chief Accounting Officer 200 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 4TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Gilead Sciences Inc 10 percent owner 333 LAKESIDE DR, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Cintia Piccina officer: Chief Commercial Officer 60 JUBILEE AVENUE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON, OXFORDSHIRE X0 X0 OX14 4R
Derek N. Adams director ALLOVIR, INC., 1100 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Van Beek Jeroen B officer: Chief Commercial Officer C/O TRICIDA, INC., 7000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 201, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Ercem Atillasoy officer: See Remarks C/O ALLOVIR, INC., 139 MAIN STREET, SUITE 500, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
David Hallal director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O ALEXION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC, 352 KNOTTER DRIVE, CHESHIRE CT 06410
F2 - Tpo Investments Llc director, 10 percent owner C/O SINGER, MCKEON INC., 8 W 38TH ST SUITE 1001, NEW YORK NY 10018
F2 Bioscience Av 2022 Llc director, 10 percent owner 8 WEST 38TH STREET, SUITE 1001, NEW YORK NY 10018
Capital I 2020 F2 director, 10 percent owner 8 WEST 38TH STREET, SUITE 1001, NEW YORK NY 10018
F2 Mc, Llc director, 10 percent owner 8 WEST 38TH STREET, SUITE 1001, NEW YORK NY 10018
Globeways Holdings Ii Ltd director, 10 percent owner C/O SINGER, MCKEON INC., 8 W 38TH ST. STE. 1001, NEW YORK NY 10018

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