Werner Enterprises (Werner Enterprises) Predictability Rank

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What is Werner Enterprises Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Werner Enterprises Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Werner Enterprises (Werner Enterprises) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Werner Enterprises Inc (NAS:WERN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WE1:Germany

Address

14507 Frontier Road, Post Office Box 45308, Omaha, NE, USA, 68145-0308

Website

https://www.werner.com

Werner Enterprises Inc ranks among the top five full-truckload carriers by revenue, with a fleet of more than 7,800 tractors, including owner-operators. The company has two reportable segments - TTS and Werner Logistics. It derives about 80% of its top line from a wide array of full-truckload shipping services (including dedicated contract carriage; roughly 20% comes from non-asset based logistics operations, including truck brokerage.

Executives

Michelle D. Greene	director	1141 N. OLD WORLD 3RD STREET, UNIT # 2414, MILWAUKEE WI 53203
Christopher D Wikoff	officer: Exec VP - Treasurer & CFO	P.O. BOX 45308, OMAHA NE 68145
Eric J Downing	officer: Exec VP and COO	P.O. BOX 45308, OMAHA NE 68145
Carmen A Tapio	director	P.O. BOX 45308, OMAHA NE 68145
Michelle Dye Livingstone	director	P.O. BOX 45308, OMAHA NE 68145
Scott C Arves	director	SCHNEIDER NATIONAL, INC., P.O. BOX 2545, GREEN BAY WI 54306
Alexi Wellman	director	ALTABA, 140 E 45TH STREET, 15TH FLOOR, SUITE 15A, NEW YORK NY 10017
Vikram Mansharamani	director	P.O. BOX 45308, OMAHA NE 68145
Jim S Schelbe	officer: Vice President - Sales	C/O WERNER ENTERPRISES INC, PO BO X45308, OMAHA NE 68415-0308
H Marty Nordlund	officer: Senior VP-Specialized Services	PO BOX 45308, OMAHA NE 68145-0308
Derek J Leathers	officer: Senior VP - Van	PO BOX 45308, OMAHA NE 68145-0308
Craig T Callahan	officer: VP Logistics & Corporate Sales	P.O. BOX 45308, OMAHA NE 68145
Clarence L Werner	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	PO BOX 45308, OMAHA NE 68145
Daragh P Mahon	officer: Executive Vice President & CIO	P.O. BOX 45308, OMAHA NE 68145
James Lynn Johnson	officer: Vice President - Controller	PO BOX 45308, OMAHA NE 68145-0308