T-Mobile US (T-Mobile US) Predictability Rank

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What is T-Mobile US Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

T-Mobile US Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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T-Mobile US (T-Mobile US) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Telecommunication Services » T-Mobile US Inc (NAS:TMUS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TMUS:Peru TMUS:Mexico 1TMUS:Italy TM5d:UK TM5:Germany TM5:Germany TM5:Germany TM5:Germany T1MU34:Brazil TMUS:Austria

Address

12920 SE 38th Street, Bellevue, WA, USA, 98006-1350

Website

https://www.t-mobile.com

Deutsche Telekom merged its T-Mobile USA unit with prepaid specialist MetroPCS in 2013, creating T-Mobile us. Following the merger, the firm provided nationwide service in major markets but spottier coverage elsewhere. T-Mobile spent aggressively on low-frequency spectrum, well suited to broad coverage, and has substantially expanded its geographic footprint. This expansion, coupled with aggressive marketing and innovative offerings, produced rapid customer growth. With the Sprint acquisition, the firm's scale now roughly matches its larger rivals: T-Mobile now serves 73 million postpaid and 21 million prepaid phone customers, equal to around 30% of the U.S. retail wireless market. In addition, the firm provides wholesale service to resellers.

Executives

Telekom Ag Deutsche	director, 10 percent owner	FRIEDERICH EBERT ALLEE 140, D 53113 BONN GERMANY I8
Deeanne King	officer: EVP, Human Resources	C/O T-MOBILE US, INC., 12920 SE 38TH STREET, BELLEVUE WA 98006
Dara Bazzano	officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer	100 NORTH SEPULVEDA BLVD., SUITE 1100, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Nestor Cano	officer: EVP, Transformation and CIDO
Michael J. Katz	officer: EVP, T-Mobile for Business	C/O T-MOBILE US, INC., 12920 SE 38TH STREET, BELLEVUE WA 98006-1350
G Michael Sievert	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1715 NORTH WESTSHORE BOULEVARD, SUITE 650, TAMPA FL 33607
Srikant Datar	director	ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC., 9300 LEE HIGHWAY, FAIRFAX VA 22031
Ulf Ewaldsson	officer: President, Technology	C/O T-MOBILE US, INC, 12920 SE 38TH STREET, BELLEVUE WA 98006
Jon Freier	officer: EVP, Consumer Markets	C/O T-MOBILE US, INC., 12920 SE 38TH STREET, BELLEVUE WA 98006-1350
James J Kavanaugh	director	IBM CORPORATION, ONE NEW ORCHARD RD, ARMONK NY 10504-1722
Andre Almeida	director	C/O T-MOBILE US, INC, 12920 SE 38TH STREET, BELLEVUE WA 98006
Raul Marcelo Claure	director	2010 NW 84 AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33122
Neville R Ray	officer: EVP & Chief Technology Officer	C/O T-MOBILE US, INC., 12920 SE 38TH STREET, BELLEVUE WA 98006
Peter Osvaldik	officer: SVP, Finance & CAO	C/O T-MOBILE US, INC., 12920 SE 38TH STREET, BELLEVUE WA 98006
Callie R Field	officer: President, Business Group	C/O T-MOBILE US, INC., 12920 SE 38TH STREET, BELLEVUE WA 98006