Synovus Financial (Synovus Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Synovus Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Synovus Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Synovus Financial (Synovus Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Synovus Financial Corp (NYSE:SNV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SNVpE.PFD:USA SNVpD.PFD:USA SYU1:Germany SYU1:Germany

Address

1111 Bay Avenue, Suite 500, Columbus, GA, USA, 31901

Website

https://www.synovus.com

Synovus Financial Corp provides commercial and consumer banking in addition to a full suite of specialized products & services such as private banking, treasury management, wealth management, mortgage services, premium finance, asset-based lending, structured lending, capital markets, & international banking to clients through the wholly-owned subsidiary bank, Synovus Bank, and other offices in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and Tennessee. It has four segments Wholesale Banking, Community Banking, Consumer Banking, and Financial Management Services, out of which the majority is from the Wholesale banking segment.

Executives

Allan E Kamensky	officer: EVP and General Counsel	P.O. BOX 120, COLUMBUS GA 31902
Eli Samaha	10 percent owner	ONE WORLD TRADE CENTER, FLOOR 65, NEW YORK NY 10007
Shellie Creson	officer: EVP and Chief Risk Officer	1111 BAY AVENUE, COLUMBUS GA 31901
John H. Irby	director	1111 BAY AVENUE, COLUMBUS GA 31901
Daniel Zachary Bishop	officer: EVP, Tech., Ops., & Sec.	1111 BAY AVENUE, COLUMBUS GA 31901
Kevin S. Blair	officer: President and CEO	1111 BAY AVENUE, SUITE 500, COLUMBUS GA 31901
Diana M Murphy	director	C/O LANDSTAR SYSTEM INC, 13410 SUTTON PARK DR S, JACKSONVILLE FL 32224
Stacy Apter	director	1111 BAY AVENUE, COLUMBUS GA 31901
Thomas T Dierdorff	officer: EVP, Corp. & Inv. Banking	1111 BAY AVENUE, COLUMBUS GA 31901
Alexandra Villoch	director	1111 BAY AVENUE, COLUMBUS GA 31901
Prochaska Joseph J Jr	director	METLIFE, 200 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10166
Teresa L White	director	1932 WYNNTON RD, COLUMBUS GA 31999
Gregory Andrew J. Jr.	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	1111 BAY AVENUE, SUITE 500, COLUMBUS GA 31901
Robert Warren Derrick	officer: EVP & Chief Credit Officer	1111 BAY AVENUE, SUITE 500, COLUMBUS GA 31901
Elizabeth D. Wolverton	officer: EVP, Head Con. Bank. Brand Exp	1111 BAY AVENUE, SUITE 500, COLUMBUS GA 31901