New York Community Bancorp (New York Community Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is New York Community Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

New York Community Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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New York Community Bancorp (New York Community Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » New York Community Bancorp Inc (NYSE:NYCB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

NYCBpA.PFD:USA QC1:Germany QC1:Germany

Address

102 Duffy Avenue, Hicksville, New York, NY, USA, 11801

Website

https://www.mynycb.com

New York Community Bancorp Inc is the bank holding company. It is a New York State-chartered savings bank that operates through eight local divisions: Queens County Savings Bank, Roslyn Savings Bank, Richmond County Savings Bank, Roosevelt Savings Bank, and Atlantic Bank in New York; Garden State Community Bank in New Jersey; Ohio Savings Bank in Ohio, and AmTrust Bank in Florida and Arizona. The bank compete for depositors in diverse markets with a comprehensive menu of products and services, and access to multiple service channels, including online banking, mobile banking, and banking by phone. It is also a producer of multi-family loans in New York City.

Executives

Eric Howell	officer: SEVP/Pres Comm & Private Bking	102 DUFFY AVENUE, HICKSVILLE NY 11801
Julie Signorille	officer: SEVP & COO	102 DUFFY AVENUE, HICKSVILLE NY 11801
Nicholas Christopher Munson	officer: EVP & Chief Risk Officer	C/O NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANCORP, INC., 102 DUFFY AVENUE, HICKSVILLE NY 11801
Bryan Marx	officer: EVP & Princ Accounting Officer	5151 CORPORATE DRIVE, TROY MI 48098
Lee Matthew Smith	officer: SEVP & President of Mortgage	C/O FLAGSTAR BANCORP INC., 5151 CORPORATE DRIVE, TROY MI 48098
John Thomas Adams	officer: SEVP Dir. Multi-Family Lending	C/O NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANCORP, INC., 102 DUFFY AVENUE, HICKSVILLE NY 11801
Reginald E Davis	officer: Sr EVP & President of Banking	5151 CORPORATE DRIVE, TROY MI 48098
Ronald A. Rosenfeld	director	NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANCORP INC, 102 DUFFY AVENUE, HICKSVILLE NY 11801
Marshall Lux	director	5 BREWSTER STREET #2105, GLEN COVE NY 11542
Jennifer R Whip	director	621 PUGH ROAD, WAYNE PA 19087
Alessandro Dinello	director, other: Non-Executive Chairman	5300 DEER RIDGE ROAD, JACKSON MI 49201
Peter Schoels	director	GLOBAL AERO LOGISTICS INC., 101 WORLD DRIVE, PEACHTREE CITY GA 30269
Toan Huynh	director	5151 CORPORATE DRIVE, TROY MI 48098
David L Treadwell	director	222 S 15TH STREET, SUITE 600 N, OMAHA NE 68102
Hanif Dahya	director	NEW YORK COOMUNITY BANCORP INC, 102 DUFFY AVENUE, HICKSVILLE NY 11801