Northrim BanCorp (Northrim BanCorp) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1990. Start your Free Trial

What is Northrim BanCorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Northrim BanCorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Northrim BanCorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Northrim BanCorp's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Northrim BanCorp (Northrim BanCorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Northrim BanCorp Inc (NAS:NRIM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

NRI:Germany

Address

3111 C Street, Anchorage, AK, USA, 99503

Website

https://www.northrim.com

Northrim BanCorp Inc is a bank holding company. The company operates in two segments: Community Banking and Home Mortgage Lending. It generates maximum revenue from the Community Banking segment. It offers to spend and save products such as checking, savings, money market accounts, debit cards, cashback rewards, and credit cards. It also includes loans and credit lines, mortgage loans, investment, and plan products.

Executives

Linda C Thomas	director	P.O. BOX 20905, JUNEAU AK 99802
Murphy Krystal Nelson	director	3111 C STREET, ANCHORAGE AK 99503
Marilyn Romano	director	3111 C STREET, ANCHORAGE AK 99503
Aaron Michael Schutt	director	3111 C STREET, ANCHORAGE AK 99503
Joseph Marushack	director	3111 C STREET, ANCHORAGE AK 99503
David G Wight	director	3111 C STREET, ANCHORAGE AK 99503
John C Swalling	director	NORTHRIM BANCORP INC, PO BOX 241489, ANCHORAGE AK 99524-1489
David W Karp	director	4731 BLUE HERON CIRCLE, ANCHORAGE AK 99507
David J Mccambridge	director	3111 C STREET, ANCHORAGE AK 99503
Joseph M Schierhorn	officer: EVP, CFO	NORTHRIM BANCORP, INC., P.O. BOX 241489, ANCHORAGE AL 99524-1489
Jed W Ballard	officer: EVP, CFO	3111 C STREET, ANCHORAGE AK 99503
Larry S Cash	director	NORTHRIM BANCORPINC, PO BOX 241489, ANCHORAGE AK 99524-1489
Karl L Hanneman	director	506 GAFFNEY ROAD, SUITE 200, FAIRBANKS AK 99701
Anthony Drabek	director	NORTHRIM BANCORP, INC., P.O. BOX 241489, ANCHORAGE AL 99524-1489
Michael A Martin	officer: EVP, Gen Counsel & Corp Sec	3111 C STREET, ANCHORAGE AK 99503