National Bankshares (National Bankshares) Predictability Rank

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What is National Bankshares Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

National Bankshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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National Bankshares (National Bankshares) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » National Bankshares Inc (NAS:NKSH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

101 Hubbard Street, Blacksburg, VA, USA, 24062-9002

Website

http://www.nationalbankshares.com

National Bankshares Inc is a bank holding company of National Bank of Blacksburg, offering a range of financial products and services, including deposit accounts, commercial, consumer, and mortgage loans, credit cards, and trust services. The bank focuses on lending to small and mid-sized businesses and individuals. The types of loans it offers include commercial and agricultural, commercial real estate, construction for commercial and residential properties, residential real estate, home equity, and various consumer loan products. It also operates an insurance and brokerage subsidiary, National Bankshares Financial Services, Inc. The company earns its revenues from interest and fees on loans, non-interest income, and investments.

Executives

Lawrence J Ball	director	1811 MOUNTAINSIDE DRIVE, BLACKSBURG VA 24060
F Brad Denardo	officer: Corporate Officer	124 MATEER CIRCLE, BLACKSBURG VA 24060
Michael E Dye	director	PO BOX 346, BLUEFIELD VA 24605
Fitzwater Norman V Iii	director	113 MATEER CIRCLE, BLACKSBURG VA 24060
Sanders Bobby D. Ii	officer: SVP/Chief Credit Officer	1735 TURNBERRY LANE, RINER VA 24149
John Elliott Dooley	director	2131 PLANK DRIVE, BLACKSBURG VA 24060
Green Charles E Iii	director	15519 LOOKOUT RIDGE, BRISTOL VA 24202
Lara E Ramsey	other: Corporate Secretary	7479 BLUFF VIEW DRIVE, RADFORD VA 24141
Mary G Miller	director	715 RICHARDS WAY, WIRTZ VA 24184
Mildred R Johnson	director	914 WILLARD DRIVE, BLACKSBURG VA 24060
Lora M. Jones	officer: SVP/Chief Financial Officer	301 NEIL STREET, BLACKSBURG VA 24060
Glenn P Reynolds	director	206 MATEER CIRCLE, BLACKSBURG VA 24060
Rebecca M Melton	officer: SVP/Chief Credit Officer	260 REVOLUTION CIRCLE, CHRISTIANSBURG VA 24073
Jack M Lewis	director	3696 CONSERVATION TRAIL, THE VILLAGES FL 32163
James Carroll Thompson	director	PO BOX 298, TAZEWLL VA 24651