First Western Financial (First Western Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is First Western Financial Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Western Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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First Western Financial (First Western Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » First Western Financial Inc (NAS:MYFW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1900 16th Street, Suite 1200, Denver, CO, USA, 80202

Website

https://myfw.gcs-web.com

First Western Financial Inc is a financial holding company that provides a fully integrated suite of wealth management services on its private trust bank platform, which includes a comprehensive selection of deposit, loan, trust, wealth planning, and investment management products and services. it has two operating segments; The Wealth Management segment consists of operations relative to the Company's fully integrated wealth management products and services. Services provided include deposit, loan, insurance, and trust and investment management advisory products and services, and The Mortgage segment consists of operations relative to the Company's residential mortgage service offerings. the bank derives its majority revenue from the wealth management segment.

Executives

Jesica J. Montgomery	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	1900 SIXTEENTH STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80202
David R. Weber	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1900 SIXTEENTH STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80202
Matthew C. Cassell	officer: Chief Banking Officer	1900 16TH STREET, SUITE 1200, DENVER CO 80202
James Allen Scott	officer: Chief Client Exp. Officer	1900 16TH STREET, SUITE 1200, DENVER CO 80202
Scott C Mitchell	director	1900 16TH STREET, SUITE 1200, DENVER CO 80202
David R Duncan	director	1900 16TH STREET, SUITE 1200, DENVER CO 80202
Scott C Wylie	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, CEO and President	1900 16TH STREET, SUITE 1200, DENVER CO 80202
John Emery Sawyer	officer: Chief Investment Officer	1900 16TH STREET, SUITE 1200, DENVER CO 80202
Julie A Courkamp	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1900 16TH STREET, SUITE 1200, DENVER CO 80202
Joseph C. Zimlich	director	1900 16TH STREET, SUITE 1200, DENVER CO 80202
Eric D Sipf	director	1601 DRY CREEK DRIVE, LONGMONT CO 80503
Mark L Smith	director	1900 16TH STREET, SUITE 1200, DENVER CO 80202
Scott J Lawley	officer: Chief Credit Officer	1900 16TH STREET, SUITE 1200, DENVER CO 80202
Cammie A Redpath	officer: Chief Human Capital Officer	1900 16TH STREET, SUITE 1200, DENVER CO 80202
Daniel C Thompson	officer: Regional Pres., Ariz./Calif.	1900 16TH STREET, SUITE 1200, DENVER CO 80202