Macatawa Bank (Macatawa Bank) Predictability Rank

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What is Macatawa Bank Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Macatawa Bank Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Macatawa Bank (Macatawa Bank) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Macatawa Bank Corp (NAS:MCBC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

10753 Macatawa Drive, Holland, MI, USA, 49424

Website

https://www.macatawabank.com

Macatawa Bank Corp is the United states based holding company of Macatawa Bank. The Bank operates in twenty-six branch offices and a lending and operational service facility, providing a range of commercial and consumer banking and trust services in Kent County, Ottawa County, and northern Allegan County, Michigan. It also provides a range of loan products to business customers, including commercial and industrial and commercial real estate loans, and to retail customers, including residential mortgage and consumer loans. In addition, other services provided by the company includes internet banking, debit cards services and brokerage services. The Company's primary sources of revenue are derived from interest and dividends earned on loans, securities and other financial instruments.

Executives

Thomas P Rosenbach	director	10753 MACATAWA DRIVE, HOLLAND MI 49424
Nicole S Dandridge	director	10753 MACATAWA DRIVE, HOLLAND MI 49424
Timothy J. Doyle	officer: Chief Commercial Banking Ofcr.	10753 MACATAWA DRIVE, HOLLAND MI 49424
Robert L Herr	director	10753 MACATAWA DRIVE, HOLLAND MI 49424
Charles A. Geenen	director	10753 MACATAWA DRIVE, HOLLAND MI 49424
Jill A Walcott	officer: Senior V.P. Retail Banking	10753 MACATAWA DRIVE, HOLLAND MI 49424
Matthew D Hoeksema	officer: Senior Vice President	10753 MACATAWA DRIVE, HOLLAND MI 49424
Mark Bugge	director	10753 MACATAWA DRIVE, HOLLAND MI 49424
Le Roy Michael K.	director	10753 MACATAWA DRIVE, HOLLAND MI 49424
Ronald L Haan	director, officer: CEO and President	10753 MACATAWA DRIVE, HOLLAND MI 49424
Richard L Postma	director	10753 MACATAWA DRIVE, HOLLAND MI 49424
White Bay Capital, Lllp	10 percent owner	3133 ORCHARD VISTA DRIVE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49546
Wayne J. Elhart	director	10753 MACATAWA DRIVE, HOLLAND MI 49424
Arend D Lubbers	director	10753 MACATAWA DRIVE, HOLLAND MI 49424
Douglas B Padnos	director	10753 MACATAWA DRIVE, HOLLAND MI 49424