What is John Marshall Bancorp Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
John Marshall Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
John Marshall Bancorp (John Marshall Bancorp) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1943 Isaac Newton Square E, Suite 100, Reston, VA, USA, 20190
John Marshall Bancorp Inc provides banking services. The company offers personal and commercial banking services including checking and deposits services, lending solutions, cash management, personal loans, and other financial services. The firm serves local businesses, professionals, individuals, and families throughout the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area.
Executives
| Jonathan Craig Kinney |
director |
2000 NORTH 14TH STREET SUITE 100, ARLINGTON VA 22201 |
| Lim Nguonly |
director |
1943 ISAAC NEWTON SQUARE EAST, SUITE 100, RESTON VA 20190 |
| Philip Chase |
director |
1943 ISAAC NEWTON SQUARE EAST, SUITE 100, RESTON VA 20190 |
| Kelly Jo Bell |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
1943 ISAAC NEWTON SQUARE EAST, SUITE 100, RESTON VA 20190 |
| Carl E Dodson |
officer: Chief Operating Officer & CRO |
1943 ISAAC NEWTON SQUARE EAST, SUITE 100, RESTON VA 20190 |
| Michael A Garcia |
director |
1943 ISAAC NEWTON SQUARE EAST, SUITE 100, RESTON VA 20190 |
| Christopher W Bergstrom |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
1943 ISAAC NEWTON SQUARE EAST, SUITE 100, RESTON VA 20190 |
| Jean Edelman |
director |
1943 ISAAC NEWTON SQUARE EAST, SUITE 100, RESTON VA 20190 |
| Kent Carstater |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1943 ISAAC NEWTON SQUARE EAST, SUITE 100, RESTON VA 20190 |
| Andrew Peden |
officer: Chief Lending Officer |
1943 ISAAC NEWTON SQUARE EAST, SUITE 100, RESTON VA 20190 |
| Subhash Garg |
director |
1943 ISAAC NEWTON SQUARE EAST, SUITE 100, RESTON VA 20190 |
| Oscar Leland Mahan |
director |
1943 ISAAC NEWTON SQUARE EAST, SUITE 100, RESTON VA 20190 |
| Ronald J Gordon |
director |
1943 ISAAC NEWTON SQUARE EAST, SUITE 100, RESTON VA 20190 |
| Michael T Foster |
director |
1943 ISAAC NEWTON SQUARE EAST, SUITE 100, RESTON VA 20190 |
| William Ridenour |
officer: Chief Banking Officer |
1943 ISAAC NEWTON SQUARE EAST, SUITE 100, RESTON VA 20190 |
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