Independent Bank (Independent Bank) Predictability Rank

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What is Independent Bank Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Independent Bank Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Independent Bank (Independent Bank) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Independent Bank Corp (NAS:INDB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2036 Washington Street, Hanover, MA, USA, 02339

Website

https://www.rocklandtrust.com

Independent Bank is a bank holding company and the sole shareholder of its bank, the Rockland Trust Company. Rockland is a community-oriented commercial bank. The bank's revenue is derived from a wide array of banking services, including lending activities, acceptance of demand, savings, and time deposits, and investment management. Rockland has historically relied heavily on both organic growth and select merger and acquisition activity to drive growth. The bank's loan portfolio constitutes the bulk of the bank's total assets. Its borrowers consist mostly of small to medium-size businesses and consumers, most of which are made to its market area in eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The bank's loan portfolio is predominantly in commercial loans.

Executives

John J Morrissey	director	C/O INDEPENDENT BANK CORP., 288 UNION STREET, ROCKLAND MA 02370
Jeffrey J Tengel	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1900 EAST NINTH STREET, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Lee C Powlus	officer: Chief Tech & Operations Off.	850 MAIN STREET, BRIDGEPORT CT 06604
Patricia M Natale	officer: General Counsel
Barry H Jensen	officer: Chief Information Officer	INDEPENDENT BANK CORP., 288 UNION STREET, ROCKLAND MA 02370
Mark J Ruggiero	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O INDEPENDENT BANK CORP., 288 UNION STREET, ROCKLAND MA 02370
Scott Smith	director	320 NORWOOD PARK SOUTH, NORWOOD MA 02062
Maureen A. Gaffney	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O INDEPENDENT BANK CORP., 288 UNION STREET, ROCKLAND MA 02370
Christopher Oddleifson	director, officer: President and CEO
Eileen C Miskell	director	C/O INDEPENDENT BANK CORP, 288 UNION STREET, ROCKLAND MA 02370
Edward H Seksay	officer: General Counsel	C/O INDEPENDENT BANK CORP, 288 UNION STREET, ROCKLAND MA 02370
Robert D Cozzone	officer: CFO and Treasurer	C/O INDEPENDENT BANK CORP., 288 UNION STREET, ROCKLAND MA 02370
Dawn Mugford	officer: Chief Risk Officer	C/O INDEPENDENT BANK CORP., 288 UNION STREET, ROCKLAND MA 02370
Donna L Abelli	director	INDEPENDENT BANK CORP., 288 UNION STREET, ROCKLAND MA 02370
Gerard F Nadeau	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O INDEPENDENT BANK CORP., 288 UNION STREET, ROCKLAND MA 02370