Humana (Humana) Predictability Rank

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What is Humana Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Humana Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Humana (Humana) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Plans » Humana Inc (NYSE:HUM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HUM:Mexico HUM:Germany HUM:Germany H1UM34:Brazil

Address

500 West Main Street, Louisville, KY, USA, 40202

Website

http://www.humana.com

Humana is one of the largest private health insurers in the U.S. with a focus on administering Medicare Advantage plans. The firm has built a niche specializing in government-sponsored programs, with nearly all its medical membership stemming from individual and group Medicare Advantage, Medicaid, and the military's Tricare program. The firm is also a leader in stand-alone prescription drug plans for seniors enrolled in traditional fee-for-service Medicare. Beyond medical insurance, the company provides other healthcare services, including primary-care services, at-home services, and pharmacy benefit management.

Executives

Susan M Diamond	officer: Segment President, Home Bus.	500 W MAIN ST., LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Sanjay K Shetty	officer: President, CenterWell	500 W. MAIN STREET, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
George Ii Renaudin	officer: President, Medicare & Medicaid	500 W. MAIN SREET, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Jones David A Jr/ky	director	C/O HUMANA INC, 500 WEST MAIN STREET, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Timothy S. Huval	officer: Sr. Vice Pres & Chief HR Offic	500 W. MAIN STREET, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Bruce D Broussard	officer: President	500 W. MAIN STREET, C/O HUMANA LAW DEPT., LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Joseph C Ventura	officer: Chief Legal Officer & Corp Sec	500 W MAIN STREET, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
William Kevin Fleming	officer: President, Hlthcare Svc Sgmt	500 WEST MAIN STREET, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Timothy Alan Wheatley	officer: President, Retail Segment	500 WEST MAIN STREET, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Samir Deshpande	officer: Chief Risk Officer	500 W MAIN STREET, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Brad D Smith	director	1040 13TH AVE, HUNTINGTON WV 25701
John-paul W. Felter	officer: SVP, Chief Accting Off & Cont.	500 W MAIN ST, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Michael A. Koeberlein	officer: SVP, Chief Accting Off & Cont.	500 W MAIN ST., LOUISVILLE KY 40202
David T Feinberg	director	1299 OCEAN AVENUE, SUITE 1000, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Agwunobi, M.d. Andrew C.	officer: Seg. President, Home Solutions	HUMANA INC., 500 W MAIN STREET, LOUISVILLE KY 40202