Primis Financial (Primis Financial) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2006. Start your Free Trial

What is Primis Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Primis Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Primis Financial Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Primis Financial's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Primis Financial (Primis Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Primis Financial Corp (NAS:FRST) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

7H80:Germany

Address

6830 Old Dominion Drive, McLean, VA, USA, 22101

Website

https://www.primisbank.com

Primis Financial Corp is the bank holding company for Primis Bank, providing financial services to individuals and small and medium-sized businesses. Primis Bank offers a wide range of commercial banking services, it focuses on making loans secured majorly by commercial real estate and other types of secured and unsecured commercial loans to small and medium-sized businesses in a number of industries, as well as loans to individuals for a variety of purposes. Primis Bank offers a broad range of deposit products, including checking (NOW), savings, money market accounts and certificates of deposit.

Executives

Rickey Allen Fulk	officer: EVP, President	1194 ELSOM MASCOT ROAD, MATTAPONI VA 23110
Charles A Kabbash	director	308 EAST MARKET ST., CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22902
Clinton Tyler Stafford	officer: Pres Panacea Financial	4612 CLUB ROAD, LITTLE ROCK AR 72207
Susan B Williamson	officer: EVP, Director of Reg Relations	32482 JENKINS MILL ROAD, FRANKLIN VA 23851
William Rand Cook	director	4459 CROWN HILL ROAD, MECHANICSVILLE VA 23111
Robert Yates Clagett	director	17017 RIVER AIRPORT ROAD, BRANDYWINE MD 20613
Eric Alan Johnson	director	P O BOX 517, URBANNA VA 23175
Matthew Alan Switzer	officer: EVP, CFO	6830 OLD DOMINION DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22101
Jones Allen R Jr.	director	304 MARCELLA ROAD, SUITE E, HAMPTON VA 23666
Garrett F L Iii	director	268 CATHCHPENNY LANE, BOWLERS WHARF VA 22560
John Fitzgerald Biagas	director	627 36TH STREET, NEWPORT NEWS VA 23607
Ann-stanton C Gore	officer: EVP, Chief Marketing Officer	1700 WOODLAKE DRIVE, COLUMBIA SC 29206
Barry P Almond	officer: EVP, Head of Retail/Marketing	14319 NICOLAY WAY, MIDLOTHIAN VA 23114
Deborah Diaz	director	6830 OLD DOMINION DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22101
Julia E Fredricks	officer: EVP, Chief Risk Officer	11032 SLENDERLEAF DRIVE, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060