What is First Citizens BancShares Predictability Rank?
2 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
First Citizens BancShares Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
First Citizens BancShares (First Citizens BancShares) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
4300 Six Forks Road, Raleigh, NC, USA, 27609
First Citizens BancShares Inc is the bank holding company of First Citizens Bank & Trust Company. FCB was founded as the Bank of Smithfield in North Carolina and has expanded through both de novo branching and acquisitions. FCB currently operates in nearly half of the continental United States, but principally takes deposits in the Carolinas. The bank's operations have historically been influenced by the Holding family, which has traditionally held executive and director positions, as well as controlling a large percentage of its outstanding stock. FCB provides a wide range of retail and commercial banking services, including traditional lending and deposit-taking, as well as trust and wealth management. FCB's main source of revenue is net interest income.
Executives
| Ellen R Alemany |
director, officer: Vice Chairwoman |
ONE ADP BOULEVARD, ROSELAND NJ 07068 |
| Carson H Brice |
10 percent owner |
PO BOX 1352, SMITHFIELD NC 27577 |
| Holding Frank B Jr |
director, officer: President and CAO |
4300 SIX FORKS ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27609 |
| Craig L Nix |
officer: Vice President-Finance |
4300 SIX FORKS ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27609 |
| Randolph R Martin |
officer: Chief Credit Officer-General |
4300 SIX FORKS ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27609 |
| Andrew Giangrave |
officer: Chief Credit Officer |
4300 SIX FORKS ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27609 |
| Eugene Jr Flood |
director |
151 DETROIT STREET, DENVER CO 80206 |
| Jeffery L Ward |
officer: Chief Strategy Officer |
4300 SIX FORKS ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27604 |
| Daniel L Heavner |
director |
4300 SIX FORKS ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27609 |
| Marisa Harney |
officer: Chief Credit Officer |
C/O CIT GROUP INC., 1 CIT DRIVE, #3251-9, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039 |
| Robert R Hoppe |
director |
4300 SIX FORKS ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27609 |
| Robert T Newcomb |
director |
4300 SIX FORKS ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27609 |
| West Ludwig |
officer: Chief Human Resources Officer |
4300 SIX FORKS ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27609 |
| Michael A Carpenter |
director |
425 PARK AVENUE 2ND FL, NEW YORK NY 10043 |
| Martin Matthew G. T. |
officer: Chief Counsel |
4300 SIX FORKS ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27609 |
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