Commercial Metals Co (Commercial Metals Co) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1982. Start your Free Trial

What is Commercial Metals Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Commercial Metals Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Commercial Metals Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Commercial Metals Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Commercial Metals Co (Commercial Metals Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Steel » Commercial Metals Co (NYSE:CMC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CMC1:Mexico CMS:Germany

Address

6565 North MacArthur Boulevard, Irving, TX, USA, 75039

Website

https://www.cmc.com

Commercial Metals Co operates steel mills, steel fabrication plants, and metal recycling facilities in the United States and manufactures rebar and structural steel, which are key product categories for the nonresidential construction sector. The Company has two reportable segments: North America and Europe.

Executives

Barbara Smith	director, officer: Chairman, President & CEO	6565 N. MACARTHUR BLVD., SUITE 800, IVING TX 75039
Stephen William Simpson	officer: SVP, N. American Steel Group	6565 NORTH MACARTHUR BLVD., SUITE 800, IRVING TX 75039
Peter R Matt	director	6565 N. MACARTHUR BLVD, STE 800, IRVING TX 75039
Lindsay L Sloan	officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer	6565 N. MACARTHUR BLVD, STE 800, IRVING TX 75039
Ty L Garrison	officer: SVP Operations	6565 N. MACARTHUR BLVD, STE 800, IRVING TX 75039
Robert S Wetherbee	director	MINERALS TECHNOLOGIES INC, 622 THIRD AVENUE 38TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10017
John R Mcpherson	director	1200 URBAN CENTER DRIVE, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242
Tracy L Porter	officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer	6565 N. MACARTHUR BLVD., SUITE 800, IRVING TX 75039
Gary E Mccullough	director	231 N. MARTINGALE ROAD, SCHAUMBURG IL 60173
Jody K Absher	officer: VP General Counsel & Corp Sec	6565 N. MACARTHUR BLVD, STE 800, IRVING TX 75039
Paul James Lawrence	officer: VP & Chief Financial Officer	6565 N. MACARTHUR BLVD., SUITE 800, IRVING TX 75039
Adam R Hickey	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	6565 N. MACARTHUR BLVD., SUITE 800, IRVING TX 75039
Lisa M Barton	director	AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY, INC., 1 RIVERSIDE PLAZA, COLUMBUS OH 43215
J David Smith	director	GMS INC., 100 CRESCENT CENTRE PARKWAY, SUITE 800, TUCKER GA 30084
Charles L Szews	director	6565 N. MACARTHUR BLVD., SUITE 800, IRVING TX 75039