Citizens Financial Group (Citizens Financial Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Citizens Financial Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Citizens Financial Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Citizens Financial Group (Citizens Financial Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Citizens Financial Group Inc (NYSE:CFG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CFGpE.PFD:USA CFGpD.PFD:USA 1C5:Germany 1C5:Germany C1FG34:Brazil

Address

One Citizens Plaza, Providence, RI, USA, RI 02903

Website

https://www.citizensbank.com

Citizens Financial Group is a bank holding company headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island. Its two primary business segments are consumer banking and commercial banking. Citizens offers a mix of retail and commercial products including capital markets and wealth options. The bank has over 1,000 branches in 14 states, although it is primarily concentrated in the Northeast. It has over $220 billion of total assets.

Executives

Terrance J. Lillis	director	C/O CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD., STAMFORD CT 06901
Shivan S. Subramaniam	director	CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD., CS119N, STAMFORD CT 06901
Kevin Cummings	director	101 JFK PARKWAY, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Michele N Siekerka	director	101 JFK PARKWAY, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Polly N. Klane	officer: General Counsel	C/O CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD., STAMFORD CT 06901
Michael Ruttledge	officer: Chief Information Officer	CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD., STAMFORD CT 06901
Lee Alexander	director	CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD. 11TH FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06901
Christopher Swift	director	HARBORSIDE FINANCIAL CENTER, 3200 PLAZA 5, JERSEY CITY NJ 07311
Brendan Coughlin	officer: Head of Consumer Banking	CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC, 600 WASHINGTON BLVD. 11TH FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06901
William P Hankowsky	director	C/O LIBERTY PROPERTY TRUST, 65 VALLEY STREAM PARKWAY, MALVERN PA 19355
Robert G Leary	director	CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD,, STAMFORD CT 06901
Charles John Koch	director	CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD., CS119N, STAMFORD CT 06901
Higdon Leo I Jr	director	1700 LINCOLN STREET, 28TH FLOOR, DENVER CO 80203
Elizabeth S. Johnson	officer: Chief Experience Officer	CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD., STAMFORD CT 06901
Susan Lamonica	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD. 11TH FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06901