Braze (BRZE) Predictability Rank

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What is Braze Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Braze Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Braze Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Braze (BRZE) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Braze Inc (NAS:BRZE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

K43:Germany

Address

330 West 34th Street, Floor 18, New York, NY, USA, 10001

Website

https://www.braze.com

Braze Inc is a customer engagement platform that powers customer-centric interactions between consumers and brands. The company provides solutions for Retail & E-commerce, Media & Entertainment, Financial Services, and Travel & Hospitality related industries.

Executives

Phillip M Fernandez	director	C/O MARKETO, INC., 901 MARINER'S ISLAND BLVD., SUITE 500, SAN MATEO CA 94404
Pankaj Malik	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O BRAZE, INC., 330 WEST 34TH STREET, FLOOR 18, NEW YORK NY 10001
Myles Kleeger	officer: Pres & Chief Customer Officer	C/O BRAZE, INC., 330 WEST 34TH STREET, FLOOR 18, NEW YORK NY 10001
Jonathan Hyman	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O BRAZE, INC., 330 WEST 34TH STREET, FLOOR 18, NEW YORK NY 10001
Chelsea R. Stoner	10 percent owner	C/O AVALARA, INC., 255 SOUTH KING ST., SUITE 1800, SEATTLE WA 98104
Susan Wiseman	officer: General Counsel	C/O BRAZE, INC., 330 WEST 34TH STREET, FLOOR 18, NEW YORK NY 10001
Russell L Fleischer	10 percent owner	2180 RUTHERFORD ROAD, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Battery Partners Xi Side Fund, Llc	10 percent owner	ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, SUITE 1100, BOSTON MA 02210
Michael Maurice Brown	10 percent owner	ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, SUITE 1100, BOSTON MA 02210
Isabelle Winkles	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BRAZE, INC., 330 WEST 34TH STREET, FLOOR 18, NEW YORK NY 10001
William Magnuson	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O BRAZE, INC., 330 WEST 34TH STREET, FLOOR 18, NEW YORK NY 10001
Scott R Tobin	10 percent owner	ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, SUITE 1100, BOSTON MA 02210
Dharmesh Thakker	10 percent owner	ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, SUITE 1100, BOSTON MA 02210
Jesse Feldman	10 percent owner	ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, SUITE 1100, BOSTON MA 02210
Fernando Machado	director	5707 BLUE LAGOON DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33126