Blue Foundry Bancorp (Blue Foundry Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Blue Foundry Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Blue Foundry Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Blue Foundry Bancorp (Blue Foundry Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Blue Foundry Bancorp (NAS:BLFY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

19 Park Avenue, Rutherford, NJ, USA, 07070

Website

https://www.bluefoundrybank.com

Blue Foundry Bancorp is a full-service bank. Its business consists of originating one-to-four-family residential, multi-family, and non-residential real estate mortgages, home equity loans and lines of credit, construction, and commercial and industrial loans. It attracts retail deposits from the general public in the areas surrounding its banking offices, through its borrowers, and through its online presence, offering a wide variety of deposit products. The bank also invests in securities. Its revenues are derived from interest on loans and, to a lesser extent, interest on mortgage-backed and other investment securities. The company's sources of funds are deposits, principal, and interest payments on loans, securities, and borrowings from the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York.

Executives

James Christopher Ely	director	19 PARK AVENUE, RUTHERFORD NJ 07070
Jonathan M. Shaw	director	19 PARK AVENUE, RUTHERFORD NJ 07070
Elizabeth Varki Jobes	director	640 LEE ROAD, CHESTERBROOK PA 19087
Robert Thomas Goldstein	director	19 PARK AVENUE, RUTHERFORD NJ 07070
Kenneth Grimbilas	director	19 PARK AVENUE, RUTHERFORD NJ 07070
Jason M. Goldberg	officer: EVP and Chief Lending Officer	19 PARK AVENUE, RUTHERFORD NJ 07070
James D Nesci	director, officer: President and CEO	830 BERGEN AVENUE, JERSEY CITY NJ 07306
Robert Rowe	officer: EVP and Chief Risk Officer	C/O CIT GROUP INC., ATTN:GENERAL COUNSEL, 1 CIT DRIVE, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
Patrick H. Kinzler	director	19 PARK AVENUE, RUTHERFORD NJ 07070
Margaret Letsche	director	19 PARK AVENUE, RUTHERFORD NJ 07070
Kelly Pecoraro	officer: EVP and CFO	19 PARK AVENUE, RUTHERFORD NJ 07070
Alexander Agnoletto	officer: Controller and Interim CFO	19 PARK AVENUE, RUTHERFORD NJ 07070
Brent Michael Ciurlino	officer: EVP and CCO	19 PARK AVENUE, RUTHERFORD NJ 07070
Elizabeth Marie Miller	officer: EVP and CRO	19 PARK AVENUE, RUTHERFORD NJ 07070
Aleksander Malkiman	officer: EVP and Chief Tech Officer	19 PARK AVENUE, RUTHERFORD NJ 07070