Zovio (ZVOI) Predictability Rank

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What is Zovio Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Zovio Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Zovio (ZVOI) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Education » Zovio Inc (OTCPK:ZVOI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1811 E. Northrop Boulevard, Chandler, AZ, USA, 85286

Website

https://www.zovio.com

Zovio Inc is an education technology services company that partners with higher education institutions and employers to deliver solutions to help learners and leaders achieve their aspirations. It has developed tools for faculty and administration. The company's Faculty Management System (FMS) supports faculty onboarding, scheduling, payroll, professional development, faculty credentials, and more.

Executives

Randy J Hendricks	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ZOVIO INC, 1811 EAST NORTHROP BLVD, CHANDLER AZ 85286
Wilson John Silvanus Jr.	director	C/O ZOVIO INC, 1811 EAST NORTHROP BOULEVARD, CHANDLER AZ 85286
Ron Huberman	director	3980 HOWARD HUGHES PARKWAY, LAS VEGAS NV 89169
George P. Pernsteiner	director	C/O BRIDGEPOINT EDUCATION, INC., 8620 SPECTRUM CENTER BLVD., SAN DIEGO CA 92123
John Kiely	director	C/O ZOVIO INC, 1811 E NORTHROP BLVD, CHANDLER AZ 85286
Ryan Craig	director	C/O BPE 13500 EVENING CREEK DRIVE NORTH, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92128
Steve Burkholder	officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer	C/O BRIDGEPOINT EDUCATION, INC., 8620 SPECTRUM CENTER BLVD., SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Michael P Cole	director	1165 NORTH CLARK STREET, 4TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60610
Andrew S. Clark	director, officer: CEO and President	C/O BPE 13500 EVENING CREEK DRIVE NORTH, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92128
Umang Jain	officer: SVP, Chief Technology Officer	C/O BRIDGEPOINT EDUCATION, INC., 8620 SPECTRUM CENTER BLVD., SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Robert D Hartman	director	20410 NORTH 19TH AVENUE, PHOENIX AZ 85027
John Semel	officer: Chief Strategy Officer	JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC., 111 RIVER STREET, HOBOKEN NJ 07030
Gregory K. Finkelstein	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O BRIDGEPOINT EDUCATION, INC., 8620 SPECTRUM CENTER BLVD., SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Kirsten Marriner	director	900 OMNICARE CENTER, 201 E. 4TH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Teresa Carroll	director	999 WEST BIG BEAVER ROAD, TROY MI 48084