Alleghany (Alleghany) Predictability Rank

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What is Alleghany Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alleghany Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Alleghany (Alleghany) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Alleghany Corp (NYSE:Y) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1411 Broadway, 34th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10018

Website

https://www.alleghany.com

Alleghany Corp is a property and casualty insurance company that owns and manages subsidiaries that operate reinsurance and insurance operations. The company also executes certain private capital investments. The company classifies its business into three reportable segments: reinsurance, insurance, and Alleghany Capital. These segments' underwriting activities are evaluated separately from investment and corporate activities. Reinsurance contracts are generally classified as a treaty or facultative contracts. Treaty reinsurance provides for the automatic reinsuring of all or a portion of a specified class of risk underwritten by the ceding company. Facultative reinsurance is geared toward individual risks.

Executives

Christopher Kent Dalrymple	officer: VP and General Counsel	C/O DARWIN PROFESSIONAL UNDERWRITERS INC 9 FARM SPRINGS ROAD FARMINGTON CT 06032
Ian H Chippendale	director	TRANSATLANTIC HOLDINGS, INC. 80 PINE ST NEW YORK NY 10005
Joseph Patrick Brandon	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O ALLEGHANY CORPORATION 1411 BROADWAY, 34TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10018
Chris H Cheesman	director	C/O ALLEGHANY CORPORATION 1411 BROADWAY, 34TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10018
Kerry J Jacobs	officer: SVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O ALLEGHANY CORPORATION 1411 BROADWAY, 34TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10018
William K Lavin	director	375 PARK AVENUE SUITE 3201 NEW YORK NY 10152
John F Shannon	officer: SVP, chief investment officer	C/O ALLEGHANY CORPORATION 1411 BROADWAY, 34TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10018
Phillip M Martineau	director	414 EAST THIRD STREET PO BOX 1109 MUSCATINE IA 52761
Lauren M Tyler	director	C/O ALLEGHANY CORPORATION, 1411 BROADWAY, 34TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Jefferson Kirby	director	ALLEGHANY CORPORATION 7 TIMES SQUARE TOWER, 17TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10036
Rex D Adams	director
Raymond Wong	director	C/O SPRING MOUNTAIN CAPITAL, LP 650 MADISON AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10022
James F Will	director	ST VINCENT COLLEGE, 300 PRASER PURCHASE RD, LATROBE PA 15650
Roger Bryce Gorham	officer: SVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O ALLEGHANY CORPORATION 1411 BROADWAY, 34TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10018
Sennott John Langton Jr	officer: SVP	C/O ALLEGHANY CORPORATION 1411 BROADWAY, 34TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10018