What is Xtant Medical Holdings Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Xtant Medical Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Xtant Medical Holdings (Xtant Medical Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
664 Cruiser Lane, Belgrade, MT, USA, 59714
Xtant Medical Holdings Inc is a medical technology company focused on the design, development, and commercialization of a comprehensive portfolio of orthobiologics and spinal implant systems to facilitate spinal fusion in complex spine, deformity and degenerative procedures. Its products are used by orthopedic spine surgeons and neurosurgeons to treat a variety of spinal disorders in the cervical, thoracolumbar, and interbody spine. The company's biomaterial products include OsteoSponge, OsteoSponge SC, OsteoSelect DBM putty, OsteoSelect Plus DBM putty, OsteoWrap, and the line of 3Demin products, as well as other allografts. It generates a majority of its revenue from the US.
Executives
| Kevin D Brandt |
officer: VP & Chief Commercial Officer |
11621 RESEARCH CIRCLE, ALACHUA FL 32615 |
| Lori D Mitchell-keller |
director |
664 CRUISER LANE, BELGRADE MT 59714 |
| Jonn R. Beeson |
director |
664 CRUISER LANE, BELGRADE MT 59714 |
| Scott C Neils |
officer: Interim CFO |
664 CRUISER LANE, BELGRADE MT 59714 |
| Mark A. Schallenberger |
officer: Chief Operations Officer |
664 CRUISER LANE, BELGRADE MT 59714 |
| Sean E Browne |
officer: President and CEO |
664 CRUISER LANE, BELGRADE MT 59714 |
| Stavros G. Vizirgianakis |
director |
1/16-18 TENNYSON ST., WILLIAMSTOWN NORTH, VICTORIA CA 3016 |
| Orbimed Rof Ii Llc |
director, 10 percent owner |
601 LEXINGTON AVE., 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Greg Jensen |
officer: VP, Finance and Interim CFO |
664 CRUISER LANE, BELGRADE MT 59714 |
| Ronald G. Berlin |
officer: VP & Chief Operations Officer |
664 CRUISER LANE, BELGRADE MT 59714 |
| Kathie J. Lenzen |
officer: SVP Fiance & Admin. & CFO |
664 CRUISER LANE, BELGRADE MT 59714 |
| Orbimed Advisors Llc |
10 percent owner |
601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Matthew Rizzo |
director, 10 percent owner |
601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Michael Eggenberg |
director, 10 percent owner |
601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Robert Mcnamara |
director |
C/O LDR HOLDING CORPORATION, 13785 RESEARCH BOULEVARD, SUITE 200, AUSTIN TX 78750 |
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