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HORNBACH Holding AG and Co KGaA (XTER:HBH) Predictability Rank


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What is HORNBACH Holding AG and Co KGaA Predictability Rank?

2.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

HORNBACH Holding AG and Co KGaA Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

HORNBACH Holding AG and Co KGaA Predictability Rank Related Terms

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HORNBACH Holding AG and Co KGaA (XTER:HBH) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » HORNBACH Holding AG and Co KGaA (XTER:HBH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HAM:HBM HD LOW ASX:WES FND LSE:KGF BKK:HMPRO XKLS:5296 BKK:GLOBAL PHS:WLCON OHEL:FSKRS ARHS TSE:3050 TSE:8218 BKK:DOHOME JSE:ITE TSE:7516 TSE:3191 TSE:8168 HVT
Traded in Other Exchanges
0RC9:UK HBH:Austria
Address
Le Quartier Hornbach 19, Neustadt an der Weinstrasse, DEU, 67433
Website
https://www.hornbach-holding.com
HORNBACH Holding AG and Co KGaA and its subsidiaries are involved in the business of Retail and Real estate segments. The company's operating segment include HORNBACH Baumarkt subgroup; HORNBACH Baustoff Union GmbH subgroup and HORNBACH Immobilien AG subgroup. It generates maximum revenue from the HORNBACH Baumarkt subgroup segment. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from Germany. Products are structured in the following divisions: Hardware/Electrical, Paint/Wallpaper/Flooring, Construction Materials/Timber/Prefabricated Components, Sanitary/Tiles, and Garden.
Executives
Karin Dohm Board of Directors
Albrecht Hornbach Board of Directors

HORNBACH Holding AG and Co KGaA (XTER:HBH) Headlines

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