Expro Group Holdings NV (Expro Group Holdings NV) Predictability Rank

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What is Expro Group Holdings NV Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Expro Group Holdings NV Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Expro Group Holdings NV (Expro Group Holdings NV) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Expro Group Holdings NV (NYSE:XPRO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FK2:Germany

Address

1311 Broadfield Boulevard., Suite 400, Houston, TX, USA, 77084

Website

https://www.expro.com

Expro Group offers products and services that span the well life cycle, including well construction, well flow management, well intervention and integrity, and subsea well access. It maintains operations around the world and specializes in offshore production solutions, capabilities enhanced by the 2021 merger with Frank's International. It also provides production optimization for both onshore and offshore applications. The majority of its business relies on international and offshore markets, representing about 80% and 70% of annual revenue, respectively.

Executives

Michael C Kearney	director	3300 NORTH SAM HOUSTON PKWY EAST, HOUSTON TX 77032-3411
Drummond Robert Wayne Jr	director	1301 MCKINNEY ST, STE 1800, HOUSTON TX 77010
Oak Hill Advisors Lp	10 percent owner	1 VANDERBILT AVE, 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Frances M Vallejo	director	1700 LINCOLN STREET, SUITE 3700, DENVER CO 80203
Brian D. Truelove	director	HESS CORPORATION, 1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Eileen Goss Whelley	director	ONE HARTFORD PLAZA, HARTFORD CT 06155
Lisa L Troe	director	12181 BLUFF CREEK DRIVE, 4TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90094
D. Keith Mosing	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	10260 WESTHEIMER ROAD, HOUSTON TX 77042
Oak Hill Advisors Genpar, L.p.	10 percent owner	1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
John Lewis Mcalister	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	DAVIDSON HOUSE, 2ND FLOOR, READING BERKSHIRE X0 RG1 3EU
Michael Bentham	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	1311 BROADFIELD BLVD, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77084
Michael Jardon	director, officer: President & CEO	1311 BROADFIELD BLVD, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77084
Alistair Geddes	officer: Chief Operating Officer	LION HOUSE, DYCE AVENUE, DYCE, ABERDEEN X0 AB21 0LQ
Quinn P Fanning	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O TIDEWATER INC, 601 POYDRAS ST, STE 1900, NEW ORLEANS LA 70130
Glenn R August	10 percent owner	C/O OHA - 1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036