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Expion360 (Expion360) Predictability Rank


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What is Expion360 Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Expion360 Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Expion360 Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Expion360 (Expion360) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Expion360 Inc (NAS:XPON) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
APWC RFIL SVT OESX DCFC TGEN EPOW DFLI OZSC ESP SZSE:300750 XSWX:ABBN BKK:DELTA TSE:6503 XPAR:LR SZSE:300124 SZSE:300274 VRT HUBB XKRX:247540
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2025 SW Deerhound Avenue, Redmond, OR, USA, 97756
Website
https://www.expion360.com
Expion360 Inc is focused on the design, assembly, manufacturing and sales of lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) batteries and supporting accessories for recreational vehicles ("RV's") and marine applications with plans to expand into home energy storage products and industrial applications. Its product offerings include some of the minimal-footprint batteries in the RV & Marine industry.
Executives
John Henry Yozamp director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer 2025 SW DEERHOUND AVE, REDMOND OR 97756
Tien Quoc Nguyen director 2025 SW DEERHOUND AVE., REDMOND OR 97756
Gregory Scott Aydelott officer: Chief Accounting Officer 2025 SW DEERHOUND AVE, REDMOND OR 97756
Paul Thomas Shoun director, officer: Chief Operating Officer 2025 SW DEERHOUND AVE, REDMOND OR 97756
Brian Paul Schaffner officer: Chief Financial Officer 2025 SW DEERHOUND AVE, REDMOND OR 97756
David Leigh Hendrickson director 2025 SW DEERHOUND AVE, REDMOND OR 97756
Steve Shum director 9025 SW HILLMAN COURT, SUITE 3126, WILSONVILLE OR 97070
George Lefevre director 18101 VON KARMAN AVENUE, SUITE 330, IRVINE CA 96212