What is Xponential Fitness Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Xponential Fitness Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Xponential Fitness (Xponential Fitness) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
17877 Von Karman Avenue, Suite 100, Irvine, CA, USA, 92614
Xponential Fitness Inc is a curator of boutique fitness brands. Its diversified portfolio of brands includes Club Pilates, a Pilates brand in the United States; CycleBar, an indoor cycling brand in the United States; StretchLab, a concept offering one-on-one and group stretching services; Row House, a high-energy, low-impact indoor rowing workout; AKT, a dance-based cardio workout combining toning, interval and circuit training; YogaSix, a franchised yoga brand; Pure Barre, a total body workout that uses the ballet barre to perform small isometric movements; Stride, a treadmill-based cardio and strength training concept; Rumble, a boxing-inspired full-body workout; and BFT, a functional training and strength-based program. Its key revenue source is franchise income.
Executives
| Chelsea A Grayson |
director |
1116 SOUTH RIDGELEY DRIVE, LOS ANGELES CA 90019 |
| Ryan Junk |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
C/O XPONENTIAL FITNESS, INC., 17877 VON KARMAN AVE, SUITE 100, IRVINE CA 92614 |
| Jair Clarke |
director |
17877 VON KARMAN AVE., SUITE 100, IRVINE CA 92614 |
| Andrew Hagopian |
officer: Chief Legal Officer |
17877 VON KARMAN AVE, SUITE 100, IRVINE CA 92614 |
| Anthony Geisler |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O XPONENTIAL FITNESS, INC., 17877 VON KARMAN AVE, SUITE 100, IRVINE CA 92614 |
| Mark Grabowski |
director, 10 percent owner |
C/O XPONENTIAL FITNESS, INC., 17877 VON KARMAN AVE, SUITE 100, IRVINE CA 92614 |
| Sarah Luna |
officer: President |
C/O XPONENTIAL FITNESS, INC., 17877 VON KARMAN AVE, SUITE 100, IRVINE CA 92614 |
| John P Meloun |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
16767 N. PERIMETER DR., STE. 240, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260 |
| Megan Moen |
officer: EVP, Finance |
C/O XPONENTIAL FITNESS, INC., 17877 VON KARMAN AVE, SUITE 100, IRVINE CA 92614 |
| H&w Investco Lp |
10 percent owner |
113 BUFFALO BAY ROAD, MADISON CT 06443 |
| H&w Investco Ii Lp |
10 percent owner |
113 BUFFALO BAY ROAD, MADISON CT 06443 |
| Mgag Llc |
10 percent owner |
113 BUFFALO BAY ROAD, MADISON CT 06443 |
| Lag Fit, Inc. |
director, 10 percent owner |
6789 QUAIL HILL, PARKWAY #408, IRVINE CA 92603 |
| Brenda I Morris |
director |
6300 MERRILL CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE B, EVERETT WA 98203 |
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