Xilio Therapeutics (Xilio Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Xilio Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Xilio Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Xilio Therapeutics (Xilio Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Xilio Therapeutics Inc (NAS:XLO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

828 Winter Street, Suite 300, Waltham, MA, USA, 02451

Website

https://www.xiliotx.com

Xilio Therapeutics Inc is a biotechnology company focused on harnessing the immune system to achieve deep and durable clinical responses to improve the lives of patients with cancer. Leveraging the GPS platform, they are building a pipeline of tumor-selective cytokine and checkpoint inhibitor immunotherapies to treat cancer. The goal is to overcome the limitations of current I-O therapies by developing products with an improved therapeutic index.

Executives

Atlas Venture Fund Xi, L.p.	10 percent owner	400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 10TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Katarina Luptakova	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O XILIO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 828 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Christopher James Frankenfield	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O XILIO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 828 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Kevin M. Brennan	officer: SVP, FINANCE AND ACCOUNTING	C/O XILIO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 828 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Edward C English	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	828 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Tomas J. Heyman	director	C/O AKERO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 170 HARBOR WAY 3RD FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Robert W. Ross	director	C/O SURFACE ONCOLOGY, 50 HAMPSHIRE ST., 8TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Yuan Xu	director	C/O AKERO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 601 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SUITE 350, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Bain Capital Life Sciences Fund Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Atlas Venture Opportunity Fund I, L.p.	10 percent owner	400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 10TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Sv7 Impact Medicine Fund Lp	10 percent owner	71 KINGSWAY, LONDON X0 WC2B 6ST
Bcls Ii Investo (gp), Llc	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Bcls Ii Investco, Lp	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Bain Capital Life Sciences Investors Ii, Llc	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Rivervest Venture Fund Iv, L.p.	10 percent owner	101 SOUTH HANLEY ROAD, SUITE 1850, ST. LOUIS MO 63105