Xcel Brands (Xcel Brands) Predictability Rank

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What is Xcel Brands Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Xcel Brands Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Xcel Brands Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Xcel Brands (Xcel Brands) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories » Xcel Brands Inc (NAS:XELB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1333 Broadway, 10th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10018

Website

https://www.xcelbrands.com

Xcel Brands Inc is a media and brand management company. It is engaged in the design, merchandising and planning, sourcing and production, licensing, marketing, and brand development. The company offers branded apparel, footwear, accessories, jewelry, home goods, and other consumer products. Its brand portfolio consists of the Isaac Mizrahi, Judith Ripka, H Halston, C Wonder, and the Highline Collective brands. The company licenses its brands to third parties, provides certain design, production, and marketing services, and generates licensing, design, and service fee revenues through contractual arrangements and other agreements.

Executives

D Loren Robert W	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and Chairman	475 10TH AVENUE, 4TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Mark Disanto	director, 10 percent owner	C/O XCEL BRANDS, INC., 475 10TH AVENUE, 4TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Seth Burroughs	officer: See Remarks	C/O XCEL BRANDS,INC., 475 10TH AVENUE, 4TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
James Haran	officer: Chief Financial Officer	475 10TH AVENUE, 4TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Michael Francis	director	6501 LEGACY DRIVE, PLANO TX 75024
James D Fielding	director	C/O XCEL BRANDS, INC., 1333 BROADWAY, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Deborah Weinswig	director	C/O XCEL BRANDS, INC., 1333 BROADWAY, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Howard M Liebman	director	C/O XCEL BRANDS, INC., 475 10TH AVENUE, 4TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Isaac Mizrahi	10 percent owner	C/O XCEL BRANDS, INC., 475 10TH AVENUE, 4TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Hilco Trading, Llc	10 percent owner	5 REVERE DRIVE, SUITE 206, NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Jeffrey Bruce Hecktman	10 percent owner	5 REVERE DRIVE, SUITE 206, NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Edward Iii Jones	director	C/O XCEL BRANDS, INC., 475 10TH AVENUE, 4TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Richard Kirschenbaum	director	C/O XCEL BRANDS, INC., 1333 BROADWAY, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Ben Malka	director	C/O XCEL BRANDS, INC., 475 10TH AVENUE, 4TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Buckingham Capital Management Inc	10 percent owner	485 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 3RD FL, NEW YORK NY 10017