SolarWindow Technologies (SolarWindow Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is SolarWindow Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SolarWindow Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SolarWindow Technologies (SolarWindow Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Independent Power Producers » SolarWindow Technologies Inc (OTCPK:WNDW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0L7R:UK

Address

9375 E. Shea Blvd., Suite 107-B, Scottsdale, AZ, USA, 85260

Website

https://www.solarwindow.com

SolarWindow Technologies Inc is a developer of transparent electricity-generating coatings namely LiquidElectricity Coatings. The LiquidElectricity Coatings transform surfaces into photovoltaic devices capable of generating electricity from natural sun, artificial light, and low, shaded, or reflected light conditions while maintaining transparency. Its products cater to multiple industries, including architectural, automotive, agrivoltaic, aerospace, commercial transportation, and marine.

Executives

Frank J Fabio	officer: CFO/Sec. (Resigned 1/9/2009)	670 BROADWAY, MASSAPEQUA NY 11758
Jatinder S Bhogal	director	216-1628 WEST 1ST AVE, VANCOUVER A1 V6J1G1
Harmel S Rayat	director, 10 percent owner, officer: SECRETARY, TREASURER	700 - 688 WEST HASTINGS STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6B 1P1
Joseph Sierchio	director	430 PARK AVENUE, SUITE 702, NEW YORK NY 10022
Alastair K. Livesey	director	216 - 1628 WEST 1ST AVENUE, VANCOUVER A1 V6J1G1
Thomas N Gladwin	director	1628 WEST 1ST AVENUE, SUITE 216, VANCOUVER A1 V6J1G1
Nicholas S. Cucinelli	director, officer: PRESIDENT/CEO	1628 WEST 1ST AVENUE, SUITE 216, VANCOUVER A1 V6J1G1