Williams (Williams) Predictability Rank

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What is Williams Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Williams Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Williams (Williams) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Williams Companies Inc (NYSE:WMB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WMB:Mexico WMB:Germany WMB:Germany

Address

One Williams Center, PO Box 2400, Tulsa, OK, USA, 74172

Website

https://www.williams.com

Williams Companies is a midstream energy company that owns and operates the large Transco and Northwest pipeline systems and associated natural gas gathering, processing, and storage assets. In August 2018, the firm acquired the remaining 26% ownership of its limited partner, Williams Partners.

Executives

Scott A. Hallam	officer: SVP Atlantic - Gulf	2800 POST OAK BLVD., HOUSTON TX 77056
Murray D Smith	director	ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, TULSA OK 74172
William H Spence	director	UNIVERSITY OFFICE PLAZA, 252 CHAPMAN RD., PO BOX 6066, NEWARK DE 19714-0066
Stephen W Bergstrom	director
Terrance Lane Wilson	officer: SVP & General Counsel	ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, TULSA OK 74172
Debbie L. Cowan	officer: SVP & Chief HR Officer	ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, TULSA OK 74172
Larry C Larsen	officer: Senior Vice President	ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, TULSA OK 74172
Richard E Muncrief	director	333 W. SHERIDAN AVE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Jesse J Tyson	director	ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, TULSA OK 74172
Alan S Armstrong	officer: Sr. Vice President - Midstream	ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, TULSA OK 74102
Carri A. Lockhart	director	6401 NORTH ELDRIDGE PKWY, HOUSTON TX 77041
Mary A. Hausman	officer: VP Chief Accounting Officer	ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, TULSA OK 74012
Walter J Bennett	officer: Senior Vice President	525 CENTRAL PARK DRIVE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73105
Stacey H Dore	director	1807 ROSS AVE, 4TH FLOOR, DALLAS TX 75201
Rose M Robeson	director	370 17TH STREET, SUITE 2775, DENVER CO 80202