What is Worksport Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Worksport Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Worksport (Worksport) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
55G East Beaver Creek Road, Richmond Hill, ON, CAN, L4B 1E5
Worksport Ltd through its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and owns the IP on a variety of tonneau covers, solar integrations, and NP (Non-Parasitic), Hydrogen-based true green energy solutions for the sustainable, clean energy, and automotive industries. The company's product includes soft vinyl tonneau covers and hard aluminum tonneau covers.
Executives
| Ned L Siegel |
director |
600 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, LOS ANGELES CA 90017 |
| William J Caragol |
director |
1690 SOUTH CONGRESS AVENUE, SUITE 200, DELRAY BEACH FL 33445 |
| Craig William Loverock |
director |
48 UNION AVE, PORT PERRY A6 L9L 1G2 |
| Michael D Johnston |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
340 RICHMOND STREET WEST, TORONTO Z4 MSV 1X2 |
| Lorenzo Rossi |
director, officer: Treasurer |
1895 CLEMENTS ROAD, SUITE 155, PICKERING A6 M1P 4Y9 |
| Steven Raivio |
director, officer: COO, Secretary |
8820 JANE STREET, VAUGHAN A6 L4K 2M9 |
| Steven F. Rossi |
10 percent owner |
1895 CLEMENTS ROAD, PICKERING A6 M1P 4Y9 |
| Truxmart Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
1895 CLEMENTS ROAD, PICKERING A6 MIP 4Y9 |
| Mathis Family Partners Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
2560 W. MAIN STREET, SUITE 200, LITTLETON CO 80120 |
| Lazzeri Family Trust, Robert Lazzeri, Trustee |
10 percent owner |
5046 CHRISTENSEN DRIVE, LITTLETON CO 80123 |
| Earnco M.p.p.p. |
10 percent owner |
2560 W MAIN ST, STE 200, LITTLETON CO 80120 |
| Lazzeri Equity Partners 401k Plan |
10 percent owner |
2560 W MAIN STREET, SUITE 200, LITTLETON CO 80120 |
| A. J. Boisdrenghien |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: President |
5910 SOUTH UNIVERSITY BOULEVARD, C-18, UNIT 165, LITTLETON CO 80121-2800 |
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