World Kinect (World Kinect) Predictability Rank

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What is World Kinect Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

World Kinect Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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World Kinect (World Kinect) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » World Kinect Corp (NYSE:WKC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WFK:Germany

Address

9800 Northwest 41st Street, Miami, FL, USA, 33178

Website

https://www.world-kinect.com

World Kinect Corp is a global energy management company involved in providing supply fulfillment, energy procurement advisory services, and transaction and payment management solutions to commercial and industrial customers worldwide. It sells and delivers liquid fuels, natural gas, electricity, renewable energy, and other sustainability solutions.

Executives

Jill Smart	director	C/O ACCENTURE, 161 N. CLARK STREET, CHICAGO IL 60601
Ken Bakshi	director	63 STONEBRIDGE ROAD, MONTCLAIR NJ 07042
Michael Crosby	officer: EVP, Global Land	9800 N.W. 41ST STREET, MIAMI FL 33178
Jose-miguel Tejada	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	C/O WORLD FUEL SERVICES CORPORATION, 9800 NW 41ST STREET, MIAMI FL 33178
John L Manley	director	15211 MEDICI WAY, NAPLES FL 34110
John Peter Rau	officer: EVP, Global Aviation & Marine	9800 N.W. 41ST STREET, MIAMI FL 33178
Robert Alexander Lake	officer: EVP, Chf. Legal Officer, CoSec	C/O WORLD FUEL SERVICES CORPORATION, 9800 N.W. 41ST STREET, MIAMI FL 33178
Jorge L. Benitez	director	5201 BLUE LAGOON DRIVE, SUITE 250, MIAMI FL 33126
Paul H Stebbins	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	C/O WORLD FUEL SERVICES CORP, 9800 N.W. 41ST STREET, SUITE 400, MIAMI FL 33178
Sharda Cherwoo	director	160 WEST 66TH STREET, APT. 45F, NEW YORK NY 10023
Michael J Kasbar	director, officer: President & COO	C/ O WORLD FUEL SERVICES CORP, 9800 N.W. 41ST STREET, SUITE 400, MIAMI FL 33178
Richard A Kassar	director	C/O WORLD FUEL SERVICES CORP., 9800 N.W. 41ST STREET, SUITE 400, MIAMI FL 33178
J Thomas Presby	director	198 KEELER ROAD, BRIDGEWATER CT 06752
Stephen K Roddenberry	director	C/O AKERMAN LLP, 98 SOUTHEAST SEVENTH STREET, MIAMI FL 33131
Jeffrey Paul Smith	officer: EVP and COO	C/O WORLD FUEL SERVICES CORPORATION, 9800 N.W. 41ST STREET, MIAMI FL 33178