What is Welbilt Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Welbilt Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Welbilt (Welbilt) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2227 Welbilt Boulevard, New Port Richey, FL, USA, 34655
Welbilt Inc is engaged in the designing, manufacturing and supplying of equipment for the commercial foodservice market which is used by commercial and institutional foodservice operators including full-service restaurants, quick-service restaurant chains, hotels, resorts, cruise ships, caterers, supermarkets, convenience stores, hospitals, schools, and other institutions. The group offers various products such as grills, induction cookers braising pans, steamers, and others under the brand name such as Cleveland, Convotherm, Delfield, Frymaster, and others. The firm's geographical segments include Americas, EMEA, and APAC. It generates a majority of its revenue from the Americas.
Executives
| Joan Kai Chow |
director |
215 W DIEHL ROAD, NAPERVILLE IL 60563 |
| William Johnson |
director, officer: President and CEO |
3005 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 200, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515 |
| Andrew Langham |
director |
C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P., 16690 COLLINS AVE., PH, SUNNY ISLES FL 33160 |
| Janice L Fields |
director |
800 NORTH LINDBERGH BLVD., ST. LOUIS MO 63167 |
| Joel H. Horn |
officer: EVP, Gen Counsel and Corp Secy |
2227 WELBILT BOULEVARD NEW PORT RICHEY FL 34655 |
| Brian R Gamache |
director |
|
| Cynthia M Egnotovich |
director |
|
| Martin D. Agard |
officer: EVP Chief Financial Officer |
3000 JOHN DEERE ROAD, TOANO VA 23168 |
| Kimberly Ann Perez |
officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer |
4211 W. BOY SCOUT BLVD. TAMPA FL 33607 |
| Richard James Sheffer |
officer: VP, IR, Risk Mgmt, Treasurer |
MANITOWOC FOODSERVICE INC. 2227 WELBILT BLVD. NEW PORT RICHEY FL 34655 |
| Dino J Bianco |
director |
C/O KRAFT FOODS GROUP, THREE LAKES DRIVE, NORTHFIELD IL 60093 |
| Jennifer Gudenkauf |
officer: EVP & CHRO |
2227 WELBILT BLVD NEW PORT RICHEY FL 34655 |
| Richard N. Caron |
officer: SVP Innovation |
MANITOWOC FOODSERVICE INC 2227 WELBILT BLVD NEW PORT RICHEY FL 34655 |
| Josef Matosevic |
officer: SVP Chief Operating Officer |
1500 WEST UNIVERSITY PARKWAY, SARASOTA FL 34243 |
| Jamie E Palm |
officer: VP, Corp Controller, CAO |
1725 SHEPHERD ROAD, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421 |
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