What is Voyager Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Voyager Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Voyager Therapeutics (Voyager Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
64 Sidney Street, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02139
Voyager Therapeutics Inc is a gene therapy company focused on developing life-changing treatments for patients suffering from severe neurological diseases. It focuses on neurological diseases where an adeno-associated virus, or AAV, gene therapy approach that either increases or decreases the production of a specific protein can slow or reduce the symptoms experienced by patients, and therefore have a clinically meaningful impact. The company's gene therapy platform enables to engineer, optimize, manufacture and deliver AAV-based gene therapies that have the potential to provide durable efficacy following a single administration. The company operates in a single segment of developing and commercializing gene therapies.
Executives
| Todd Alfred Carter |
officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
C/O VOYAGER THERAPEUTICS, INC., 64 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Robin Swartz |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
C/O VOYAGER THERAPEUTICS, INC., 75 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Peter P. Pfreundschuh |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O IMMUNOMEDICS, INC., 300 THE AMERICAN ROAD, MORRIS PLAINS NJ 07950 |
| Sandell Jacquelyn Fahey |
officer: Chief Legal Officer |
C/O VOYAGER THERAPEUTICS, INC., 64 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| George A Scangos |
director |
C/O EXELIXIS INC, 170 HARBOR WAY, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94083 |
| Alfred Sandrock |
director |
14 CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Robert W. Hesslein |
officer: Senior VP & General Counsel |
C/O FOUNDATION MEDICINE, INC., ONE KENDALL SQUARE, SUITE B3501, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Jude Onyia |
director |
C/O NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, INC., 12780 EL CAMINO REAL, SAN DIEGO CA 92130 |
| Neurocrine Biosciences Inc |
10 percent owner |
12780 EL CAMINO REAL, SAN DIEGO CA 92130 |
| Third Rock Ventures Iii, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
29 NEWBURY STREET, 3RD FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Ecor1 Capital, Llc |
10 percent owner |
357 TEHAMA STREET #3, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103 |
| Grace Colon |
director |
C/O CAREDX, INC., 3260 BAYSHORE BOULEVARD, BRISBANE CA 94005 |
| Catherine J Mackey |
director |
3595 JOHN HOPKINS COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Glenn Pierce |
director |
|
| Michael J Higgins |
director |
C/O GENOCEA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 100 ACORN PARK DRIVE, 5TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140 |
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